Highlights Our long-term FX REER models suggest the dollar remains overvalued, especially against the Chinese yuan. The cheapest currencies are the yen and the Russian ruble. The Scandinavian currencies are surprisingly…
Highlights China's high-profile jawboning draws attention to tightness in metals markets, and raises the odds the State Reserve Board (SRB) will release some of its massive copper and aluminum stockpiles in the near future. Over…
Highlights Global oil markets will remain balanced this year with OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy geared toward maintaining the level of supply just below demand. This will keep inventories on a downward trajectory,…
As expected, the Bank of England maintained the bank rate at 0.1% and kept the total target stock of asset purchases unchanged at its Thursday meeting. However, the central bank upgraded its growth outlook and now forecasts GDP…
Highlights Rising CO2 emissions on the back of stronger global energy growth this year will keep energy markets focused on expanding ESG risks in the buildout of renewable generation via metals mining (Chart of the Week). …
Highlights Higher copper prices will follow in the wake of China's surge in steel demand, which lifted Shanghai steel futures to an all-time high just under 5,200 RMB/MT earlier this month, as building and infrastructure projects…
Highlights Stronger global growth in the wake of continued and expected fiscal and monetary stimulus, and progress against COVID-19 are boosting oil demand assumptions by the major data suppliers for this year. We lifted our…
Highlights On a timeframe of a few years, a net deflationary shock is a near-certainty even if we do not know its precise nature or its precise timing. Hence, investors must build such a deflationary shock or shocks into their long-…
Highlights Global Inflation: The case for maintaining a strategic overall allocation to inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) versus nominal government debt in dedicated global fixed income portfolios remains intact. Global growth expectations…
Highlights The Swiss economy will benefit from the pickup in global growth. The recent weakness in the franc has been a welcome development for the Swiss National Bank, but technicals suggest a coiled spring rally in CHF is likely.…