Highlights Butterflies & Yield Curve Models: With bond market volatility now back to the subdued levels seen prior to the COVID-19 market turbulence earlier in 2020, it is a good time to update our global yield curve valuation…
Highlights Our intermediate-term timing models suggest the US dollar is broadly overvalued. We are maintaining a modest procyclical currency stance (long NOK, GBP and SEK), but also have a portfolio hedge (short USD/JPY). Go…
The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of June 30, 2020. The model has added another 6 points to the US overweight at the expense of the euro area, mainly Germany, Netherlands, and Spain. The driving force for…
Highlights In the short run, extreme policy uncertainty is problematic for risk assets. In the long run, gargantuan fiscal and monetary stimulus continues to support cyclical trades. Equity volatility always increases in the…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of the Monitors are now below the zero line, indicating the need for continued easy global monetary policy to help mitigate the…
The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of May 29, 2020. The model has not made any significant change this month. It has kept the same order for the top four overweight countries (Spain, Australia, Sweden,…
Highlights China is taking advantage of global chaos to solidify its sphere of influence – beginning with Hong Kong. The crisis is also motivating the European Union to link arms more tightly through a symbolic step toward…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of April 30, 2020. The model has not made significant changes this month. Now Spain, Australia, Sweden and the US are the…