Highlights The collapse in oil prices supercharges the geopolitical risks stemming from the global pandemic and recession. Low oil prices should discourage petro-states from waging war, but Iran may be an important exception. Russian…
Highlights Q1/2020 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio underperformed the custom benchmark by -40bps during the first quarter of the year – a number that would have been far worse if not for the changes in…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of March 31, 2020. The model upgraded Canada and Australia to overweight, financed by a reduction in the overweights of the US…
Late last year we started closely monitoring the Value Line Geometric Index (gauging the median stock, VLGI) and nominated it as a “Chart Of The Year” candidate. This Index’s track record was, and remains, 100% accurate…
Highlights The pandemic has a negative impact on households and has not peaked in the US. But a depression is likely to be averted. Our market-based geopolitical risk indicators point toward a period of rising political turbulence…
Highlights The path of least resistance for the DXY remains up. The internal dynamics of financial markets remain constructive for the DXY. We explore more key indicators to complement the analysis in our February 28 report. Our…
Feature Global markets are moving to price in a negative growth impact from COVID-19. It is impossible to gauge with any precision the magnitude and duration of this negative growth shock. We discussed the potential growth trajectory of…
Highlights The coronavirus is a wild card that may have a significant impact on the global economy, … : The COVID-19 outbreak is unfolding in real time, half a world away, and its ultimate course is uncertain. For now, our China…