Highlights Duration: The coronavirus outbreak will cause our preferred global growth indicators to move lower during the next couple of months. Bond yields will also stay low until the daily number of new cases approaches zero, at…

Highlights A currency portfolio comprised of the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Norwegian krone is likely to outperform a more diversified basket over multiple macroeconomic scenarios. Our work suggests that valuation matters for…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of January 31, 2020.  The model made a significant change in its allocation this month. The allocation to the US is now…

Highlights China’s economic rebound in Q1 will be delayed due to the coronavirus, which will have a larger negative hit than SARS. New stimulus measures will assist a rebound in demand later this year. Europe remains a…

Highlights The bank credit 6-month impulse is likely to drop sharply in Europe, drop modestly in the US, but remain positive in China. Hence, the momentum of first-half economic data is likely to be worse in Europe than in China…

Highlights 2019 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio underperformed the custom benchmark index by -38bps for all of 2019. Winners & Losers: The underperformance of our model bond portfolio in 2019 was…

Highlights 2020 Model Bond Portfolio Positioning: Translating our 2020 global fixed income Key Views into recommended positioning within our model bond portfolio comes up with the following conclusions: target a moderately aggressive…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of December 31, 2019.  The model made two significant changes to its allocations this month. First, the allocation to the US is…

Special Report

Highlights US politics are the chief source of global geopolitical risk over the coming year – and likely beyond. President Trump’s reelection remains our base case – the sitting president rarely loses if the economy…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of November 29, 2019.  The model has not made any directional change in its allocations this month. In terms of magnitude,…