Highlights The US-China trade talks will continue despite Hong Kong. The UK election will not reintroduce no-deal Brexit risk – either in the short run or the long run. European political risk is set to rise from low levels,…
The BCA Geopolitical Strategy Presidential Election Model is a state-by-state model that uses political and economic variables to predict the Electoral College vote. The model would have predicted the past five elections…
Dear Client, In addition to this short weekly report, you will also receive our 2020 outlook, published by the Bank Credit Analyst. Next week, I will be on the road visiting clients in South Africa. I hope to report my discussions and…
Highlights Global Growth: The latest readings from our global leading economic indicator and the global ZEW index show further improvement in growth momentum. Maintain a below-benchmark stance on global duration, favoring inflation-…
Highlights There is little risk that inflation will heat up over the next several months, … : Weak growth is more of a threat to the global economy than inflation. … which means the Fed won’t be in any hurry to…
Highlights The mood among investors is shifting from the recessionary gloom of this past summer. Equities worldwide are rallying, buoyed by a combination of dovish monetary policies, tentative signs of bottoming global growth and…
Highlights While the Caixin PMI is pointing to improving economic conditions, other data series still reflect weak growth. China’s business cycle is likely to bottom in Q1 of next year, rather than in Q4. The failure of…