Highlights Our leading gauges of EM commodity-demand growth indicate global industrial-commodity demand has troughed and will be moving higher in the wake of supportive global financial conditions. The magnitude and speed of any…
Highlights The U.S. and China are moving toward formalizing a trade ceasefire that reduces geopolitical risk in the near term. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is finished – removing a major downside to European assets. Spanish…
Following up on our “chart of the year candidate” we published two weeks ago,1 we drilled deeper and discovered two additional economically sensitive indexes that have consistently peaked prior to the SPX in the…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of the Monitors are now below the zero line, indicating a growing need to ease global monetary policy (Chart of the Week).…
Highlights Q3/2019 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio underperformed the custom benchmark by -30bps during the third quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: The biggest underperformance came from…
Highlights We still don’t see a recession occurring in the next twelve months, … : Recessions only occur when monetary policy is restrictive. It’s easy now, and it will be a while before conditions push the Fed to…
Highlights Global LEI Upturn: Our Global leading economic indicator (LEI) has started to climb higher, signaling a potential end to the current global growth slowdown. LEI Components: This improvement is broad-based across countries…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of September 30, 2019. The country model downgraded Australia from overweight to underweight in order to boost Canada and…
Highlights Corporate Bonds: High corporate debt levels will be a problem for corporate bond investors during the next downturn, but spreads will not respond to them until inflationary pressures mount and monetary policy turns…
Highlights The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong but investors’ skittishness has caused stocks to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of news headlines. With investor sentiment playing a leading role, we introduce a…