The downward pressure on global government bond yields looks to be losing steam. The “inversion panic” in the U.S. Treasury market has subsided with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back above 2.50% last week.…
Highlights 10-Year Yield: In this week’s report we run through different macro factors that could be used to create a macroeconomic model of the 10-year Treasury yield, and describe the current outlook for each one. On balance,…
Highlights Duration: A growing list of leading global growth indicators are either climbing or are in the process of bottoming. This is putting a floor under global bond yields, as signaled by our new GFIS Duration Indicator. Maintain…
Highlights Odds are that the recent improvement in Chinese manufacturing PMIs could be due to inventory re-stocking rather than a decisive turnaround in final demand. “Hard” data have not shown meaningful improvements in…
The first panel of the chart above shows that coincident economic activity sharply converged in January and February with our China Investment Strategy team’s leading indicator for China’s economy, as we had argued…
An inverted yield curve has called eight of the seven recessions that have occurred over the last 50 years, making it a dependable leading indicator. Year-over-year contraction in the Conference Board’s Leading Economic…
Feature GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of March 29, 2019. The quant model has not made changes in the direction of underweights and overweights compared to last…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of our country Monitors are now forecasting monetary policy on hold, apart from Australia and New Zealand where looser policy is…
Highlights The yield curve has inverted: The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below the 3-month T-bill rate following the March FOMC meeting and has remained there since. We never say it’s different this time, but there is not…
Railway stocks may still give us a read on the state of the U.S. economy, but they are too localized to provide a genuine read on the global economy. The stocks of companies shipping goods across the world better fit this…