Right now that evidence is scant. March Flash PMIs for the U.S. and Eurozone both fell last week, while Japan’s reading stayed flat below the 50 boom/bust line. This means that the Global Manufacturing PMI’s downtrend…
Highlights We are asked nearly everywhere we go about the Fed’s independence, … : The Fed’s independence is an especially popular topic overseas, and it typically takes some persuasion to bring clients around to our…
Highlights Dovish Central Banks & Duration: Bond markets have shifted rapidly in recent weeks, pricing out any and all rate hikes expected over the next year in the major developed economies. With global growth likely to rebound in…
Highlights All the U.S. data look broadly similar to us, …: The data series are decelerating, one by one, but they generally remain at a fairly high level relative to history. … and we have begun sounding like a broken…
At the end of 2019, Canadian growth ground to a halt. Not only are exports hurt by the recent decline in global growth, but domestic economic activity is also reeling, as capex remains soft, households are reluctant to spend, and…
Feature The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of February 28, 2019. The quant model increased allocations to Spain, Italy, Sweden and Germany at the expense of the U.S., the Netherlands and Switzerland. As such,…
On Monday Chinese A-shares surged by nearly 6%, their best daily performance in three years. In many corners of the investment community, EM assets and China related assets have interpreted these developments as a positive omen.…
The above chart highlights this reflationary backdrop for U.S. stocks. Our U.S. equity team’s Reflation Gauge (RG, comprising oil prices, interest rates and the U.S. dollar) is probing levels last hit in 2012. Historically…
High-Yield default-adjusted spread is the excess spread available in the high-yield index after accounting for expected 12-month default losses. Expected default losses are calculated using the Moody’s baseline default rate…