The index is divided into four main components. The GIA index’s Trade Component combines EM import volumes and an estimate of global dry bulk shipping rates to gauge demand. The Currency Component uses a basket of…
Trepidation engulfs commodity markets like a fog weaving through half-deserted streets. Central bankers huddle in muttering retreats, growing more cautious by the day. EM growth concerns – particularly slowing trade volumes, and…
The recovery in pharma stocks has taken our valuation indicator (VI) from an undervalued to a neutral position, while our technical indicator (TI) shows that health care stocks are overbought. Healthcare stocks outperformed in…
Too-restrictive monetary policy is always the root cause of recessions. Similarly, a recession can also occur if an external shock to growth is severe enough to depress economic activity faster than policymakers can identify the…
Our size CMI has been hovering near the boom/bust line, as it has for most of the last two years. Despite the neutral CMI reading, in response to the diverging (and unsustainable) debt levels of small caps vs. their large cap…
For S&P financials, the divergence between the upward thrust of our CMI and the depressed level of our valuation indicator (VI) has reached stunning levels, the former accelerating into pre-GFC territory and the latter…
Key Portfolio Highlights The S&P 500 has started 2019 with a bang as dovish cooing from the Fed has proven a tonic for equities. While we have not entirely retraced the path to the early-autumn highs, our strategy of staying…
We often rely on our Intermediate-Term Timing Model (ITTM) to gauge if a currency is cheap or not. The above chart compares the Aggregate Domestic Attractiveness Ranking of G-10 currencies to their deviation from their ITTM.…
We build a ranking methodology using domestic economic variables only, intentionally excluding global business cycle factors. Essentially, we want to create an additional filter to be used independently of our main method. This…
Highlights We always strive to develop new analytical methods to complement our focus on judging currencies based on global liquidity conditions and the business cycle. This week, we introduce a ranking method based strictly on…