Inflation poses a threat to equities if it makes the Fed uncomfortable enough to pull the plug on the expansion or if it makes investors uncomfortable enough to apply a significant haircut to earnings multiples. Given the Fed…
Highlights Our non-consensus inflation and Fed views just got even more non-consensus: Media and sell-side commentators were quick to speculate about an end to the tightening cycle following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but we don…
Feature The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of January 31st, 2019. The quant model slightly reduced the size of the underweight to the U.S. equities, but U.S. remains the largest underweight in the model and no…
Highlights We recently upgraded our recommended investment stance on global corporate bonds to overweight on a tactical (3 to 6 months) basis.1 Feature That change was mostly based on our view that global financial conditions had…
In our commodity team’s simulation of how a state collapse could affect oil prices, we make the following assumptions based on recent history. First, Venezuela collapses next month. Second, OPEC 2.0 responds with a…
Highlights 2018 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio generated a modest outperformance versus the custom benchmark index of +6bps for all of 2018. Winners & Losers: The outperformance of our model bond…
The above chart presents our China Investment Strategy team’s market-based China growth indicator. The bottom two panels of the chart include each of the four asset classes that make up the indicator.1 One observation…
After a brief rebound, the ratio of risk-on vs. Safe-Haven currencies used by BCA’s Emerging Market Strategy team has once again rolled over. This ratio picked up the growing risks to global demand last year, worries that…
Highlights Our leading indicator for China’s old economy continues to point to slower growth over the coming months, which is consistent with the bearish message from China’s housing market and forward-looking export…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of December 31, 2018. The quant model reduced Spain’s large overweight to a slight overweight, and further downgraded the…