The chart presents three stylized scenarios as a possible multi-year roadmap for investors faced with a “mini-cycle world”. Scenario 1 represents the pessimistic case articulated by Arthur Budaghyan, our chief…
Highlights Dear Client, This is the final Global Fixed Income Strategy report for 2018. We will return with our first report of the new year on January 8th, 2019. Our entire team wishes you a very happy holiday season and a prosperous…
Going back to the mid-1960s there has been only one time when the stock market peaked prior to the yield curve inversion, in 1973: the SPX crested on January 11 and the yield curve inverted on January 16 (due to lack of data we…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of November 30, 2018. The quant model further downgraded U.S. in favor of the non-U.S. block, especially Germany, the…
Highlights Credit: Credit spreads are widening due to the combination of weakening global growth and perceptions of restrictive Fed policy. Investors should monitor the indicators of global growth and Fed policy outlined in this report…
Feature Asset Allocation Amid Late-Cycle Turbulence BCA today published its 2019 Outlook, Late-Cycle Turbulence,1 our annual discussion with long-time clients Mr X and his daughter, Ms X. Recommendations This note is simply to…
Highlights The October credit and housing market data present a gloomy picture for Chinese domestic demand. Trade remains buoyant, but exports are set to decline materially over the coming months. Many investors are focused too much…
Highlights Global Yields: Global bond yields appear to be settling into a new trading range, with the downside limited by tight labor markets but the upside capped by slowing global growth momentum. 2014/15 Redux?: The domestic U.S.…
Despite a stellar Q3 earnings print, the S&P 500 had a terrible October as EPS continues to do the hard work in lifting the market (Chart 1). Chart 1EPS Doing The Heavy Lifting We bought the dip,1 consistent with our view…
Yesterday’s FOMC press statement was largely unchanged from the previous release. The Fed left rates unchanged as expected, but is likely to deliver another hike in December. Despite October’s market turbulence, Fed…