Highlights The global 6-month credit impulse is likely to turn up in the fourth quarter. This warrants profit-taking in some pro-defensive equity sector, regional, and country allocation... ...for example, in the 35 percent…
Highlights The indicators that led the EM selloff continue to point to more downside. Meanwhile, broader EM valuation and positioning indicators have not yet bombed out to warrant bottom fishing. In China, policymakers are not yet…
Highlights The persistent weakness of the RMB appears to be one important factor weighing on Chinese stocks, particularly the domestic market. CNYUSD may have some upside from current levels if the Trump administration applies only 10…
We published a Special Alert report titled Turkey: Book Profits On Shorts yesterday. The link is available on page 18. This report is Part 2 of an overview of the cyclical profiles of emerging market (EM) economies. This all-in-charts…
Highlights It has not been a lot of fun being a corporate bond investor in 2018. Global credit markets have struggled to deliver positive returns, amid a news flow that has been overwhelming at times. Geopolitical uncertainty, shifting…
Highlights Duration: The market is only priced for a fed funds rate of 2.83% by the end of 2019. This is well below the range of 3.25% to 3.5% that will prevail if the Fed sticks to its current 25 basis points per quarter rate hike…
Feature GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of July 31, 2018. The quant model lifted its U.S. allocation to be in line with the benchmark weight at the expense of Spain…
With a number of our sentiment indicators breaking out (all panels), we took the opportunity to refresh our cyclical indicators in this week's Cyclical Indicator Update. Some highlights are our S&P industrials and our S&P…