Highlights The financial landscape has shifted over the past month with the arrival of some inflation 'green shoots' and a major shift in U.S. fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is shaping up to be a major source of demand and a…

Highlights Stage 1: The first stage of the bond bear market is being driven by a re-anchoring of inflation expectations. This stage will be complete when both the 10-year and 5-year/5-year forward TIPS breakeven inflation rates reach…

Highlights U.S. equities 'melted up' in January as tax cuts made the robust growth/low inflation sweet spot even sweeter. Ominously, recent market action is beginning to resemble a classic late cycle blow-off phase. The…

Special Report

Equities have melted up in recent weeks, celebrating the tax bill passage, synchronized upswing in global economic data, still quiescent inflation and near vanishing tail risk. On July 10th when we penned the "SPX 3,000?" report…

Special Report

Highlights The beta of Chinese stocks has been steadily increasing over the past few years, versus both emerging markets and global stocks. Rising relative currency volatility has likely durably increased the cyclicality of Chinese…

Highlights U.S. Treasuries: U.S. Treasury yields are too low relative to the strength of global economic growth and the rising trend in U.S. inflation expectations. Maintain below-benchmark duration exposure in the U.S., stay…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of December 31, 2017. The model's allocation to Australia has proven to be quite volatile as evidenced by the large increase to…

Special Report

Highlights The Li Keqiang Index (LKI) is particularly relevant for global investors, who are most concerned with China's investable stock performance and the country's impact on global exports. BCA's view is that the LKI…

Highlights 2018 Model Bond Portfolio Positioning: Translating our 2018 key global fixed income views into recommended positioning within our model bond portfolio comes up with the following: target a moderate level of portfolio risk,…

Highlights The November jobs report keeps the Fed on track. Despite rising government debt levels, crowding out is not a significant threat. Capex as a share of GDP rises the year before a tax cut and falls in the year after.…