GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update One thing worth noting is that the model now is neutral on Canada, after a long-standing underweight. Canada's valuation ranking had been improving, but the signal was only confirmed…

Special Report

Highlights In this report we use a statistical approach to test the ability of a broad array of macro data series to reliably predict the Chinese business cycle. Out of 40 series that we examined, only 6 passed our test criteria. All…

Highlights The centrist consensus is breaking down across the developed world; In its place is rising political plurality, with non-centrist and anti-establishment parties gathering support; This trend is not to be feared by the…

Highlights Risk assets continue to rise despite a flattening yield curve. Individual investors are more sanguine than institutional investors as stocks make new highs. The S&P 500 is testing the top of a key channel. Will it…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of October 31st, 2017. There are no significant changes in country allocations, but minor changes are the reductions in the…

Special Report

Highlights On Black Monday, October 19, 1987, equity bourses around the world plunged amid cascading bouts of selling, recording some of their largest single-day losses of the twentieth century. The plunge, exacerbated by derivatives…

Special Report

Highlights Since the release of our currency hedging report on September 29, 2017,1 we have received an overwhelming positive response from clients around the globe. We thank our clients for their appreciation of our research. Instead…

Special Report

Dear Client, There is no regular report this week. Instead, I am sending you a Special Report written by colleague Mark McClellan, who examines global equity valuations from a bottom-up perspective using our Equity Trading Strategy (ETS…

Highlights It is often argued that the U.S. dollar is expensive, but models do not offer a unanimous picture. The U.S. current account, exports share, and cyclical inflation do not point to an obvious dollar overvaluation either.…

Highlights Year One Performance: The GFIS recommended model bond portfolio returned 1.1% (hedged into USD) in its first year of existence, slightly underperforming the custom benchmark index by -2bps. Our bearish duration tilts were…