Highlights The resilience of EM industrial commodity demand, which is helping to lift inflation and inflation expectations in the U.S., will be tested over the next few months, as markets gear up for a possible oil-production deal…
Highlights When interest rates are ultra-low, central banks have no margin for policy error. A small loosening or tightening has the potential to produce either a stall or catastrophic turbulence. The analogy is flying a plane at high…
Highlights EM tech stocks are overbought while banks are fundamentally vulnerable due to bad-loan overhang. EM stocks have never decoupled from the U.S. dollar and commodities prices. There has been no recovery in EM corporate…
Equities, bonds and commodities are becoming suddenly, unusually, and dangerously correlated. But it cannot last.
Hillary Clinton has a 65% chance of winning the election; she receives 334 electoral college votes according to our model. Trump still requires an exogenous shock to win. Meanwhile, the USD is poised to rally - and leftward-moving…
Global bond yields continue to grind higher, led by signs of improving growth, moderately higher inflation and central banks having difficulty staying credibly dovish. Maintain a below-benchmark duration stance.
The DM Country Model favors the U.S., with Japan and U.K. being the two large underweights. The Sector Model continues to recommend a cyclical tilt.