The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is…
The median voter theory is one of the few genuine theories of political science. It assumes that voters have limited policy priorities and that politicians want power. Therefore the latter will adjust their stances to satisfy the…
The RMB has been steadily depreciating versus the U.S. dollar and has dropped to a new cyclical low versus its trade-weighted basket. All the while, Chinese domestic interest rates have lately drifted higher. When global investors…
The model has downgraded France to underweight due to deteriorating liquidity and technical conditions. U.S. weight is boosted by 4 points at the expenses of European countries.
For the month of April, the model's performance was in line with the S&P 500, but lagged global equities. For May, the model is aggressively paring back its equity risk exposure. Both Europe and Emerging Markets were downgraded,…
EM/China growth improvements and the associated rally will falter on their own without tightening by policymakers. The short duration of these mini-cycles and a lack of observable catalysts make it impossible to precisely time…
Clients should forgive us for being too gloomy at the start of the year -- it is difficult to be optimistic in the dead of a Montreal winter. However, with springtime comes the reflation trade, born on the wings of massive Chinese…
Gold seems to be leading global share prices. Gold prices have rolled over since March 10. Hence, odds are that the U.S. dollar is about to bottom, and that global and EM stocks, as well as commodities prices, are about to relapse.…