Special Report

Several tail risks appear less ominous compared to last month. Nonetheless, the earnings outlook has not improved and the FOMC will turn more hawkish ahead of the June meeting. Stay defensively positioned.

Special Report

Renewed strength in the U.S. equity market sponsored by another round of global monetary easing has revived the debate about whether it is finally time to transition out of our alpha-generating defensive portfolio strategy. This…

There are no indicators that consistently lead share prices or can differentiate cyclical bull markets from short-term oversold rebounds. Investors who are right on the big-picture view will be rewarded, and vice versa. From a big-…

Special Report

We are introducing a new set of fair value models for currencies. On a cyclical basis, the dollar is expensive. However, this is not enough of a reason to expect an imminent fall in the greenback. The yen is extremely cheap, and its…

Lean against rally attempts until leading profit indicators improve. The conditions for a tradable oilfield services rebound remain elusive. Capital markets may bounce, but we would sell on strength.

Special Report

Despite its substantial decline, the 10-year Treasury yield still appears reasonably valued relative to our base case scenario of a flat or slightly weaker U.S. dollar. In this Special Report we outline our Treasury valuation…

Last month, the model outperformed both global and U.S. equities in local-currency and U.S.-dollar terms. For February, the model is aggressively increasing its risk exposure and has included a bet on commodities for the first time…

Special Report

We are introducing a quantitative equity country allocation for the MSCI World universe. Currently the model recommends overweight U.S. and eurozone while underweight Japan, U.K., Canada and Australia, broadly in line with our…

Central banks follow backward-looking indicators but economies follow forward-looking indicators. So which indicators should investors follow? And what is the current message? Also, we see signs that London is cooling.

Our first report, Introducing ETS: A Top-Down Approach to Bottom-Up Stock Picking, discussed the theoretical underpinnings of our model as well as the reasons why one should take stock market anomalies into consideration. However,…