Bangladesh

Highlights Liquidity conditions in Bangladesh are easy and growth has revived. Exports are set to recover as well. Foreign reserve accumulation will continue, which will have positive implications for the economy and stock prices. Steadily rising capital expenditure has improved the economy’s productivity and competitiveness. Progress towards gender and income equality has also been impressive. Growth will stay strong and steady, which warrants higher equity multiples. Bangladeshi stocks also have low correlation with their EM and Emerging Asian counterparts, providing diversification benefits. Absolute return investors should buy this market on dips. Dedicated EM/Frontier market equity portfolios should consider overweighting Bangladeshi stocks. Feature A new business cycle appears to be unfolding in Bangladesh. Domestic demand has picked up. Exports are slated to rise as well. The country’s structural progress also continues to be impressive. Not surprisingly, stocks have gone up in tandem. Yet, high and rising oil prices may lead to a pause in the rally. Absolute-return investors with a time horizon of more than one year should therefore consider accumulating equities on dips. Dedicated equity investors should consider adding the very ‘low-correlation’ Bangladeshi equity market to an EM Asia/EM equity portfolio (Chart 1).   External Tailwinds Bangladesh’s foreign reserves have surged to a new high. This has been a very positive development for both the economy and stock prices (Chart 2). Chart 1Bangladeshi Stocks Will Benefit From Liquidity Tailwinds Bangladeshi Stocks Will Benefit From Liquidity Tailwinds Bangladeshi Stocks Will Benefit From Liquidity Tailwinds Chart 2Foreign Reserves, M1 And Stock Prices Foreign Reserves, M1 And Stock Prices Foreign Reserves, M1 And Stock Prices Chart 3Both Current And Capital Account Balances Have Improved Both Current And Capital Account Balances Have Improved Both Current And Capital Account Balances Have Improved The country’s balance of payments (BoP) has improved substantially in the last couple of years. The improvement can be attributed to both current and capital accounts: The current account deficit has narrowed significantly since 2018. The improvement will likely persist as the outlook of its two main components are both promising: Remittances have surged to an all-time high of $25 billion over the past 12-months. In the coming year too, it will likely stay buoyant thanks to a 2% incentive scheme that the government introduced on inward remittances (Chart 3, top panel). The second major component, the trade deficit, will likely stabilize. This is because exports are set to pick up, in part due to rising orders from the EU, Bangladesh’s prime export destination (Chart 4). The recent surge in trade credit inflows also implies a significant rise in export revenues in the coming months (Chart 5). That said, high oil prices, if they remain as such, will lead to higher import bills. Crude and petroproducts make up about 10% of Bangladesh’s import costs and can be a headwind to the trade balance, and by extension, stock prices. Chart 6 shows that stock prices accelerate when oil prices are low, but struggle when oil prices rise. Chart 4Strong EU Orders Means Exports Are Set To Accelerate Further Strong EU Orders Means Exports Are Set To Accelerate Further Strong EU Orders Means Exports Are Set To Accelerate Further Chart 5A Surge In Trade Credit Also Implies Strong Export Numbers Ahead A Surge In Trade Credit Also Implies Strong Export Numbers Ahead A Surge In Trade Credit Also Implies Strong Export Numbers Ahead   Capital account inflows have risen sharply too. The rise is due mainly to surging trade financing inflows (as mentioned above), and elevated government foreign borrowing (Chart 3, bottom panel). Going forward, trade financing inflows can remain at a high level if the country continues to obtain the same volume of export orders. The government’s foreign borrowing may also persist. Notably, this long-term financing is mostly used to import capital goods – something that the country needs for its investment and infrastructure projects (Chart 7). With Bangladesh’s ever-rising capital expenditure, such long-term capital inflows – either in the form of government borrowing, or FDI, or a combination of two – will likely continue. If so, this will not only help boost the country’s BoP in the short-term, but it will also be a long-term positive for Bangladesh since capital spending will help improve productivity. Chart 6Stocks Struggle Whenever Oil Prices Rise Too Much Stocks Struggle Whenever Oil Prices Rise Too Much Stocks Struggle Whenever Oil Prices Rise Too Much Chart 7Government's Foreign Borrowings Help Finance Infrastructure Projects Government's Foreign Borrowings Help Finance Infrastructure Projects Government's Foreign Borrowings Help Finance Infrastructure Projects   Overall, odds are that the BoP will stay in healthy surplus, thus allowing the central bank continue to accumulate foreign exchange reserves. This has major ramifications for the domestic economy. Rising foreign reserves augment domestic money supply. Stronger money supply is bullish for the economy, and in turn, stock prices (Chart 2, above).   Growth Has Revived Domestic demand has revived. Manufacturing has risen to well-above pre-pandemic levels. Robust economic activity is also vouched for by strong electricity generation (Chart 8). What’s more, the recovery will likely have legs as a new credit cycle could well be unfolding. For one, banks are flush with excess reserves – usually a precursor to rising credit going forward. This is because the Bangladeshi central bank uses excess reserves to achieve its monetary policy objectives1 (Chart 9). Chart 8Bangladesh's Domestic Growth Has Revived Well Beyond Pre-Pandemic Levels Bangladesh's Domestic Growth Has Revived Well Beyond Pre-Pandemic Levels Bangladesh's Domestic Growth Has Revived Well Beyond Pre-Pandemic Levels Chart 9A Deluge Of Excess Reserves Will Help Kickstart A New Credit Cycle A Deluge Of Excess Reserves Will Help Kickstart A New Credit Cycle A Deluge Of Excess Reserves Will Help Kickstart A New Credit Cycle Chart 10Banks' NPL Problems Have Abated Marginally Banks' NPL Problems Have Abated Marginally Banks' NPL Problems Have Abated Marginally Incidentally, the central bank is planning to engineer an acceleration in its domestic credit growth rate to 17.8% by June 2022, up from 10.3% in June 2021. It is also planning to augment the broad money growth to 15% from 13.6% in June 2021 as part of its 2021-22 policy objectives. That means the monetary policy setting will remain very accommodating in the foreseeable future, paving the way for a new credit cycle. Notably, the country’s inflation is under control, with both headline and core CPI hovering around 5 - 6% over the past few years. Wage growth has also been broadly in line with consumer inflation and shows no sign of accelerating. Contained wages and consumer price inflation will make the central bank’s plan to run easy policy more feasible.  Meanwhile, the banks’ bad loan problems have abated somewhat. As per the latest data from the IMF, the banking system’s gross NPL ratio has fallen to 8.1%, and its net NPL ratio to 4.6% as of Q1 this year (Chart 10, top panel). The lingering NPLs are concentrated in a handful of state-owned banks whose role in the economy has steadily diminished and which now hold about 20% of the banking sector loans. Banks' capital adequacy ratios are also decent at 11.6% and 7.8% (for Tier I capital) respectively (Chart 10, bottom panel). Hence, banks will likely be more willing to expand their loan books going forward which should help propel economy. Chart 11Bangladesh Has Notched Up Impressive Growth Without Any Credit Gush Bangladesh Has Notched Up Impressive Growth Without Any Credit Gush Bangladesh Has Notched Up Impressive Growth Without Any Credit Gush Remarkably, over the past decade, Bangladesh has been able to notch up a robust growth rate of 7%+ without any credit gush in the economy. Domestic credit, at 48% of GDP, is at the same level as it was ten years ago (Chart 11). Hence, should a new credit cycle unfold, Bangladeshi’s growth rate will likely move up a notch higher than it has been in the recent past. The country’s fiscal stance is not going to be tight either. The parliament has passed a budget for the 2021-22 fiscal year (July – June) that envisages a nominal spending growth of 6.3%. Incidentally, government debt is rather low at 23% of GDP. Including the debt held by all the public corporations (concentrated in public financial corporations), gross public debt goes up to 56% of GDP - still a manageable figure.  Real government borrowing costs are low as well. The 10-year nominal bond yield is at 6%; in real terms (deflated by non-food CPI), it is 0%. Thus, fiscal authorities have the wherewithal to ramp up borrowing and spending to stimulate the economy should there be a need. Robust Structural Backdrop Structurally, the Bangladeshi economy is remarkably resilient. The growth rate has not only been very steady but has also seen acceleration over the past quarter century. This is in sharp contrast to the boom-and-bust cycles experienced in most other developing nations (Chart 12). Even during the recent pandemic, Bangladesh has been one of the rare countries where growth has remained positive. Importantly, factors behind this stable growth are likely to persist: Bangladesh has done very well to ramp up its capital expenditure to a substantial 32% of GDP, one of the highest rates globally (Chart 13, top panel). This has helped the economy gain competitiveness over time – which is evident in the continued improvement in its net exports volume (Chart 13, bottom panel). Chart 12Bangladeshi Economy Has Been Devoid Of Boom-Bust Cycles Bangladeshi Economy Has Been Devoid Of Boom-Bust Cycles Bangladeshi Economy Has Been Devoid Of Boom-Bust Cycles Chart 13Strong And Rising Capex Has Led To Higher Competitiveness Strong And Rising Capex Has Led To Higher Competitiveness Strong And Rising Capex Has Led To Higher Competitiveness   Strong capex has also been instrumental for the economy to grow at a very robust 6-7% rate for decades at a stretch and yet keep inflation under control. This indicates that productive capacity and labor productivity have been rising. Inflation is often a binding constraint to fast growth over a prolonged period of time. Bangladesh’s productivity growth rates have indeed risen to among the highest rates globally, the pandemic-hit last year being a deviation from the long-term trend (Chart 14). What’s more, given the sustained investment in productive capacity and the still low absolute level of labor productivity – compared to other East and South-east Asian economies – Bangladesh should continue to see robust productivity gains in the foreseeable future. Bangladesh specializes in a staple consumer product: textiles. Rising productivity has helped export volumes quintuple over the past two decades; handily beating both emerging markets and global exports volume growth. Incidentally, in common currency terms, the relative wage ratio between Bangladesh and China has been flat at a low level. This has helped Bangladesh remain competitive and continue to expand its global export market share (Chart 15). Chart 14Bangladesh's Productivity Growth Rate Is Among The Best Globally Bangladesh's Productivity Growth Rate Is Among The Best Globally Bangladesh's Productivity Growth Rate Is Among The Best Globally Chart 15Bangladesh Has Been Consistently Gaining Market Share In Global Trade Bangladesh Has Been Consistently Gaining Market Share In Global Trade Bangladesh Has Been Consistently Gaining Market Share In Global Trade   The country’s demographic outlook is also positive. The working age population as a share of the total is projected to rise for another decade.2 Together, strong productivity growth and a rising labor force will ensure an enviable potential growth rate of around 7 - 8% over the next decade. Inclusive, Sustainable Growth Economic factors aside, strong and steady growth in Bangladesh also owes much of its achievements to social progress. Over the past few decades, the country has attained significant improvements in various human development areas: Bangladesh boasts of one of the highest female participation rates in its labor force in the Muslim world. At 36%, this is almost twice as high as the Middle East & North Africa (20%), Pakistan (22%), and neighboring India (21%) – as per the World Bank. In the fledgling textile industry in Bangladesh, over 75% of workers are women. The country pioneered microcredit, which by design mostly goes to women. The social fabric of the country is changing as women are now much more likely to make family / economic decisions. Spending on children’s food, health and education has gone up. Women’s fertility rates have gone down significantly. At the same time, infant / maternal mortality rates have witnessed one of the fastest declines seen anywhere globally.   Chart 16Bangladesh’s Income Inequality Has Remained Low As Growth Has Been Inclusive Bangladeshi Equities: Buy On Dips Bangladeshi Equities: Buy On Dips Bangladesh’s income inequality – as measured by the Gini index – is one of the lowest in the world (Chart 16). What’s more, despite strong growth, inequality has not risen over the past 25 years. This is in stark contrast to many other advanced and developing countries. Such inclusive growth has rendered the society more equitable, making growth itself more sustainable. Bangladeshis have largely embraced their more liberal linguistic identity over their religious identity. For context, Bengali-speaking Bangladesh was born out of an extremely violent secession from the Urdu-speaking people of Pakistan in 1971 as the former realized that culturally their linguistic identity supersedes their religious identity.3  As such, the vast majority of Bangladeshis practice a moderate form of Islam. This factor has helped to encourage such social changes as the empowerment of women and the expansion of microcredit as religious / cultural opposition has been low. These major traits of this society, including those of gender and income equality, are likely to persist in the foreseeable future. Therefore, odds are that the strong growth will continue to remain inclusive and therefore sustainable. Investment Conclusions The Bangladeshi equity market exhibits a very low and often a negative correlation with both the EM and Emerging Asian markets. In particular, periods of global risk aversions, such as in 2014-15 and early 2020 saw the correlations turn negative. This increases market attractiveness to asset allocators as it will allow them to reap diversification benefits (Chart 17). That said, this bourse has risen significantly over the past year or so and has outperformed its EM counterparts (Chart 1 in page 1). Its valuations have also risen and are now on par with their EM peers (Chart 18). As such, there could well be a period of indigestion / consolidation – especially if our view of a stronger dollar and rising US bond yields transpires, and oil prices remain elevated over the next several months. Chart 17Bangladeshi Stocks' Correlation With EM Turns Negative During Bear Markets Bangladeshi Stocks' Correlation With EM Turns Negative During Bear Markets Bangladeshi Stocks' Correlation With EM Turns Negative During Bear Markets Chart 18Bangladeshi Stock Valuations Have Risen, But Are Not Excessive Bangladeshi Stock Valuations Have Risen, But Are Not Excessive Bangladeshi Stock Valuations Have Risen, But Are Not Excessive   Putting it all together, we recommend that absolute return investors with a time horizon of over one year should adopt a strategy of ‘buying on dips’ for Bangladeshi stocks. Dedicated EM/frontier market equity portfolios should consider overweighting Bangladeshi stocks. Finally, regarding the currency, the Bangladeshi taka will likely remain more or less stable over the next year or so. The taka rarely depreciates unless the country’s BoP begins to deteriorate materially. As explained above, that is not in the cards. Rajeeb Pramanik Senior EM Strategist rajeeb.pramanik@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 Bangladeshi central bank tries to control the ‘quantity’ of money/credit, rather than the ‘price (i.e., interest rate)’ to conduct its monetary policy. To explain, it controls the ‘reserve money’ growth and thereby impact the ‘broad money (M2)’ growth - to achieve its objectives on economic growth, inflation, and the exchange rate. 2 As per the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2019. The same metric for Vietnam, Bangladesh’s main exports competitor, has peaked in 2015. 3 For a detailed account of the geopolitical outlook of Bangladesh and the larger South Asia, please see South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theatre from BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy team.

Highlights As US and China’s grand strategies collide, expect major and minor geopolitical earthquakes whose epicenter will now lie in South Asia and the Indian Ocean basin. Another tectonic change will drive South Asia’s emergence as a new geopolitical battle ground - South Asia is now heavily weaponized. All key players operating in this theater are nuclear powers. South Asia’s democratic traditions are well-known but notable institutional and social fault lines exist. These could trigger major geopolitical events in Afghanistan, Pakistan and in pockets of India too. We are bullish on India strategically but bearish tactically. Dangerous transitions are underway to India’s east and west. Within India, key elections are approaching, and it is possible that growth may disappoint. For reasons of geopolitics, we are strategically bullish on Bangladesh but strategically bearish on Pakistan and Sri Lanka. We are booking gains of 9% on our long rare earths basket and 1% on our long GBP-CZK trade. Feature Over the 1900s, East Asia and the Middle East emerged as two key geopolitical focal points on the world map. Global hegemons flexed their muscles and clashed in these two theaters. Meanwhile South Asia was a geopolitical backstage at best. The majority of South Asia was a British colony until the second half of the twentieth century. After WWII it struggled with the difficulties of independence and mostly missed out on the prosperity of East Asia and the Pacific. But will the twenty-first century be any different? Absolutely so. We expect the current century to be marked by major and minor geopolitical earthquakes in which South Asia and the Indian Ocean basin will play a major part. This seismic change is likely to be the result of several tectonic forces: Population: A quarter of the world’s people live in South Asia today and this share will keep growing for the next four decades. India will be the most populous country in the world by 2027 and will account for about a fifth of global population. Supply: China’s growth model has left it heavily dependent on imports of raw materials from abroad. It is clashing with the West over markets and supply chains. Beijing is building supply lines overland while developing a navy to try to secure its maritime interests. These interests increasingly overlap with India’s, creating economic competition and security concerns over vital sea lines of communication. Access: Whilst the Himalayas and Tibetan plateau have historically prevented China from expanding its influence in South Asia, China’s alliance with Pakistan is strengthening. Physical channels like the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and other linkages under the Belt and Road Initiative, now provide China a foot in the South Asian door like never before (Map 1). Weapons: The second half of the twentieth century saw China, India, and Pakistan acquire nuclear arms. Consequently, South Asia today is one of the most weaponized geographies globally (Map 1). Map 1South Asia To Emerge As A Key Geopolitical Theater In The 21st Century South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater With the South Asian economy ever developing, and US-China confrontation here to stay, we expect China to make its presence felt in South Asia over the coming decades. The US’s recent withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the failure of democratization in Myanmar, are but two symptoms of a grand strategic change by which China seeks to prevent US encirclement and Indo-American cooperation develops to counter China. Throw in the abiding interests of all these powers in the Middle East and it becomes clear that South Asia and the Indian Ocean basin writ large will become increasingly important over the coming decades. The Lay Of The Land - India Is The Center Of Gravity Chart 1South Asia Managed Rare Feat Of ‘Steady’ Growth South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia stands out amongst developing regions of the world for its large and young population. In recent decades, South Asia has also managed to grow its economy steadily, surpassing Sub-Saharan Africa and rivaling the Middle East (Chart 1). While South Asia’s growth rates have not been as miraculous as East Asia post World War II, its growth engine has managed to hum slowly but surely. India and Bangladesh have been the star performers on the economic growth front (Chart 2). Despite decent growth rates, the South Asian region is characterized by very low per capita incomes due to large population. On per capita incomes, Sri Lanka leads whilst Pakistan finds itself at the other end of the spectrum (Chart 3). Chart 2India And Bangladesh Have Been Star Performers South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Chart 3Per Capita Incomes In South Asia Have Grown, But Remain Low South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Chart 4India Accounts For About 80% Of South Asia’s GDP South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia constitutes eight nations. However only four are material from an investment perspective: India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. India is the center of gravity as it offers the most liquid scrips and accounts for 80% of the region’s GDP (Chart 4). In addition: India accounts for 101 of the 110 companies from South Asia listed on MSCI’s equity indices. MSCI India’s market capitalization is about $1 trillion. In fact, India’s equity market could soon become larger than that of the UK and join the world’s top-five club.1 The combined market cap of MSCI Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan amounts to only about $6 billion. Liquidity is a constraint that investors must contend with whilst investing in these three countries in South Asia. Pakistan is the home of 220 million – set to grow to 300 million by 2040. It lags its neighbors on economic growth and governance but has nuclear weapons and a 650,000-strong military. Bottom Line: India is the center of gravity for the regional economy and financial markets in South Asia. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are small but are developing. Pakistan is the laggard, but is militarily strong, which raises political and geopolitical risks. South Asia: Major Consumer, Minor Producer Chart 5Manufacturing Capabilities Of South Asian Economies Are Weak South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia’s defining economic characteristic is that it is a major consumer. This feature contrasts with the region’s East Asian cousins, which worked up economic miracles based on their manufacturing capabilities. South Asia’s appetite to consume is partly driven by population and partly driven by the fact that this region’s economies have an unusually underdeveloped manufacturing base (Chart 5). It’s no surprise that all countries in South Asia (with the sole exception of Afghanistan) are set to have a current account deficit over the next five years (Charts 6A and 6B). Chart 6ASouth Asian Economies Tend To Be Net Importers South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Chart 6BSouth Asian Economies Tend To Be Net Importers South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater India is set to become the third largest global importer of goods and services (after the US and UK) over the next five years. Its rise as a large client state of the world will be both a blessing and a curse, as increased business leverage will coincide with geopolitical insecurity. Structurally, Sino-Indian tensions are rising and growing bilateral trade will not be enough to prevent them. Meanwhile dependency on the volatile Middle East is a geopolitical vulnerability. Either way, India and its region become more important to the rest of the world over time. Whilst the structure of South Asia’s economy is relatively rudimentary, it is worth noting that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka present an exception. Bangladesh has embarked on a path of manufacturing-oriented development via labor-intensive production. Sri Lanka has a well-developed services sector (Chart 7). In particular: Bangladesh: Within South Asia, Bangladesh’s manufacturing sector stands out as being better developed than regional peers. More than 95% of Bangladesh’s exports are manufactured goods –a level that is comparable to China (Chart 8). China’s share in the global apparel and footwear market has been systematically declining and Bangladesh is one of the countries that has benefited most from this shift. Bangladesh’s share in global apparel and footwear exports to the US as well as EU has been rising steadily and today stands at 4.5% and 13% respectively.2 Chart 7Bangladesh’s And Sri Lanka’s Economies Are Relatively Modern South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Chart 8Bangladesh Has The Most Developed Exports Franchise In South Asia South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Sri Lanka: Whilst Sri Lanka social complexities are lower and per capita incomes are higher as compared to peers in South Asia, its transition from a long civil war to a focus on economic development recently suffered a body blow, first owing to terrorist attacks in 2019 and then owing to the pandemic. The economic predicament was then worsened by its government’s hasty transition to organic farming which hit domestic food production. Geopolitically it is worth noting that China is one of the largest lenders to Sri Lanka. Whilst Sri Lanka’s central bank may be able to convince markets of the nation’s ability to meet debt obligations for now, its foreign exchange reserves position remains precarious and public debt levels remain high. Sri Lanka’s vulnerable finances are likely to only increase Sri Lanka’s reliance on capital-rich China. Despite Democracy, South Asia Has Political Tinderboxes Another factor that sets South Asia apart from developing regions like Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia is the region’s democratic moorings. India and Sri Lanka lead the region on this front, although the last decade may have seen minor setbacks to the quality of democracy in both countries (Chart 9). Pockets of South Asia are socially and politically unstable, characterized by religious or communal strife, terrorist activity, and even the occasional coup d'état. Risk Of Social Conflict Most Elevated In Pakistan And Afghanistan India’s demographic dividend is real, but its benefits should not be overstated. For instance, India’s northern region is a demographic tinderbox. It is younger than the rest of the country, yet per capita incomes are lower, youth underemployment is higher, and society is more heterogeneous. The rise of nationalism in India is an important consequence and could engender potential social unrest. Chart 9India’s Democracy Strongest, But May Have Had Some Setbacks South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Chart 10South Asia Is Young And Will Age Slowly South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater   Chart 11Social Complexities Are High In Afghanistan & Pakistan South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater A similar problem confronts South Asia as a whole. Pakistan and Afghanistan are younger than India by a wide margin (Chart 10). But both countries are economically backward and have either poor or non-existent democratic traditions. Lots of poor youths and inadequate political valves to release social tensions make for an explosive combination. These countries are highly vulnerable to social conflict that could cause political instability at home or across the region via terrorism (Chart 11). The Gatsby Effect Most Prominent In Pakistan While various regions struggle with inequality, South Asia has less of a problem that way (Chart 12). However South Asia is characterized by very low levels of social mobility as compared to peer regions. This can partially be attributed to two centuries of colonial rule as well as to endemic traditions of social stratification. Chart 12Gatsby Effect: Social Mobility Is Lowest In Pakistan South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Within South Asia it is worth noting that social mobility is the lowest in Pakistan and highest in Sri Lanka. Chart 13Military’s Influence Most Elevated In Pakistan And Nepal Too South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Military Influential In Pakistan (And Nepal) Events that transpired over January 2020 in the US showed that even the oldest constitutional democracy in the world is not immune to a breakdown of civil-military relations. South Asia has seen the occasional coup d'état, one reason for the political tinderboxes highlighted above. Obviously, Myanmar is the worst – it saw its nascent democratization snuffed out just last year. But other countries in the region could also struggle to maintain civilian order in the coming decades. The military’s influence is outsized in Pakistan as well as Nepal (Chart 13). India maintains high levels of defense spending but has a strong tradition of civilian control (Chart 14). Chart 14Pakistan’s Military Budget Is Most Generous, India A Close Second South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Global Battle Ground Historically global hegemons have sought to assert their dominance by staking claim over coastal regions in Europe and Asia. Over the past two centuries Asia has emerged as a geopolitical theater second only to Europe. Naval and coastal conflicts have emerged from the rise of Japan (the Russo-Japanese War) and the Cold War (the Korean War & the Vietnam War). Today the rise of China is the destabilizing factor. The “frozen conflicts” of the Cold War are thawing in Taiwan, South Korea, and elsewhere. China is pursuing territorial disputes around its entire periphery, including notably in the East and South China Seas but also South Asia. Meanwhile the US, fearful of China, is struggling to strike a deal with Iran and shift its focus from the Middle East to reviving its Pacific strategic presence. A budding US-China competition is creating conditions for a new cold war or a series of “proxy battles” in Asia. Over the next few decades, we expect disputes to continue. But the focal points are likely to cover South Asia too. In specific, landlocked regions in South Asia are likely to see rising tensions in the twenty-first century (Map 2). Also as mentioned above, China’s naval expansion and the US’s attempt to form a “quadrilateral” alliance with India, Japan, and Australia will generate tensions and potentially conflict. European allies are also becoming more active in Asia as a result of US alliances as well as owing to Europe’s independent need for secure supply lines. Map 2China’s Interest In Landlocked Regions Of South Asia Is Rising South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater While border clashes between India and China will ebb and flow, Indo-Chinese confrontations along India’s eastern border will become a structural theme. Arguably, Sino-Indian rivalries pre-date the twenty-first century. But in a world in which the Asian giants are increasingly economically and technologically developed, Sino-Indian confrontations are likely to persist and result in major geopolitical events. Consider: China is adopting nationalism and an assertive foreign policy to cope with rising socioeconomic pressures on the Communist Party as potential GDP growth slows. China is developing a navy as well as a stronger alliance with Pakistan, which includes greater lines of communication. North India is a key constituency for the political party in power in India today (i.e., the Bhartiya Janata Party or BJP) and this geography harbors especially unfavorable views of Pakistan (Chart 15). Thus, there is a risk that the India of today could respond far more decisively or aggressively to threats or even minor disputes. More broadly, nationalism is rising in India as well as China. India is shedding its historical stance of neutrality and aligning with the US, which fuels China’s distrust (Chart 16). Chart 15Northern India Views Pakistan Even More Unfavorably Than Rest Of India South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Chart 16India Has Aligned With The QUAD To Counter The Sino-Pak Alliance South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Turning attention to India’s western border, clashes between India and Pakistan relating to landlocked areas in Kashmir will also be a recurring theme. Whilst India currently has a ceasefire agreement in place with Pakistan, peace between the two countries cannot possibly be expected to last. This is mainly because: Kashmir: Core problems between the two countries, like India’s control over Kashmir and Pakistan’s use of militant proxies, remain unaddressed. India’s unexpected decision in 2019 to abrogate article 370 of the Indian constitution has reinforced Pakistan’s attention on Kashmir. Sino-Pak Alliance: Pakistan accounted for 38% of China’s arms exports over 2016-20. Pakistan accounts for the lion’s share of Chinese investments made in South Asia (Chart 17). Sino-India rivalries will spill into the Indo-Pak relationship (and vice versa). Revival Of Taliban: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has revived Taliban rule in that country. Taliban’s rise will resuscitate a range of dormant terrorist movements in Afghanistan as well as in Pakistan. India has a long history of being targeted. South Asia today is very different from what it looked like for most of the post-WWII era: it is heavily weaponized. India, Pakistan, and China became nuclear powers in the second half of the twentieth century and have been steadily building their nuclear stockpiles ever since (Chart 18). North Korea’s growing arsenal is theoretically able to target India, while Iran (more friendly toward India) may also obtain nuclear weapons. Chart 17China And Pakistan: Joined At The Hip? South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Chart 18South Asia: The New Epicenter For Nuclear Activity South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater While nuclear arms create a powerful incentive for nations to avoid total war, they can also create unmitigated fear and uncertainty during incidents of major strategic tension. This is especially true when countries have not yet worked out a mode of living with each other, as with the US and USSR in the early days of the Cold War. Investment Takeaways For investors with an investment horizon exceeding 12 months, we highlight that India presents a long-term buying opportunity for two key reasons: China’s Internal And External Troubles Will Benefit India: As long as US and China do not reengage in a major way, global corporations will fall under pressure to diversify from China and the US will pursue closer relations with India. China faces an array of challenges across its periphery, whereas India need only focus on the South Asian sphere. India Is Rising As A Global Consumer: As long as a major Middle East war and oil shock is avoided (not a negligible risk), India should see more benefits than costs from its growing importance as a client of the world. However, over the next 12 months we worry that India is priced for perfection. India currently trades at a punchy premium relative to emerging markets (Table 1) at a time of when both geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds are at play. In particular: Table 1We Are Bearish On India Tactically, But Bullish On India & Bangladesh Strategically South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Major Transitions Are Dangerous: Recent developments in South Asia have added to geopolitical risks for India. The assumption of power by Taliban in Afghanistan will activate latent terrorist forces that could target India. Pakistan’s chronic instability combined with the change of power in Afghanistan could set off an escalation in Indo-Pakistani tensions, sooner rather than later. On India’s eastern front, China’s need to distract its population from a souring economy could trigger a clash between China and India. Down south, China’s rising influence over crisis-hit Sri Lanka is notable and could potentially engender security risks for India. Chart 19Politics Can Trump Economics In Run Up To General Elections South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Growth Slowing, Elections Approaching: We worry that India’s growth engine may throw up a downside surprise over the next 12 months owing to poor jobs growth and poor investment growth. History suggests that politics often trumps economics in the run up to general elections (Chart 19). Hence there is a real risk that policy decisions will be voter-friendly but not market-friendly over 2022. As both India and Pakistan are gearing up for elections in the coming years, major military showdown or saber rattling should not be ruled out. Both countries may engineer a rally around the flag effect to bump up their pandemic-battered approval. Tension with China may escalate as Xi Jinping extends his term in power next year and seeks to enforce red lines in China’s eastern and western borders. Globally what are the key geopolitical factors that could lead to India’s underperformance in the short run? We highlight a checklist here: China Stimulates: The near-term clash between markets and policymakers in China should eventually give way to meaningful fiscal stimulus by Chinese authorities. This buoys China as well as emerging markets that depend on China for their growth. However, even if China flounders, India may not continue to outperform. The correlation between MSCI India and China equities has been positive. Fed Tightens Quickly: A faster-than-expected taper and tightening guidance could cause those emerging markets that are richly priced like India to correct. A Crisis Over Iran’s Nuclear Program: If the US is unable to return to diplomacy, tensions in the Middle East will rise and stoke oil prices. This will affect India adversely, given global price pressures and India’s high dependence on oil imports. Conversely, if these developments fail to materialize then that would lower our conviction regarding India’s underperformance in the short run. In summary, we are bullish India strategically but bearish tactically. As regards the three other investable markets in South Asia: We are bearish on Pakistan and Sri Lanka on a strategic time horizon. Whilst both nations’ rising alignment with China could be an advantage ceteris paribus, ironically their deteriorating finances are driving their proximity to capital-rich China (Chart 20). To boot, Sri Lanka’s ability to pay its way out of its economic crisis on its own steam is worsening. This is evident from its rising debt to GDP ratio (Chart 21). Chart 20Pakistan And Sri Lanka Running Low On Reserves South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater Pakistan faces elevated risks of internal social conflict, must deal with a rapidly changing external environment, has a weak democracy and an unusually influential military. Sri Lanka’s social risks are low, but its economic crisis appears likely to persist. The fact that both markets have been characterized by a high degree of volatility in earnings in the recent past implies that even a cyclical “Buy” case for either of these markets is fraught with risks (Table 1). The outlook for Bangladesh is better. Exports account for 15% of GDP and the US and Europe account for around 70% of its exports. Strong fiscal stimulus in these developed markets should augur well for this frontier market. Additionally, Bangladesh is characterized by moderate social risks, reasonably strong democracy scores and low levels of influence from the military. Its healthy public finances (Chart 21) and the fact that it shares no border with China creates the potential to leverage a symbiotic relationship with China. Chart 21Sri Lanka’s Debt Now Exceeds Its GDP South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater But there is a catch. Bangladesh as a market has a low market cap and hence offers low levels of liquidity (Table 1). We thus urge investors to avoid making cyclical investment calls on this South Asian market. However, from a long-term perspective we highlight our strategic bullish view on Bangladesh given supportive geopolitical factors. Watch out for an upcoming report from our Emerging Markets Strategy team, that will delve into the macroeconomic aspects of Bangladesh.   Ritika Mankar, CFA Editor/Strategist ritika.mankar@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 Abhishek Vishnoi and Swetha Gopinath, "India's stock market on track to overtake UK in terms of m-cap: Report" Business Standard, October 2021. 2 Arianna Rossi, Christian Viegelahn, and David Williams, "The post-COVID-19 garment industry in Asia" Research Brief, International Labour Organization, July 2021. Open Trades & Positions South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater South Asia: A New Geopolitical Theater

Highlights Bangladesh’s balance of payments (BoP) is a key pillar for the country’s financial markets and economy. The country’s BoP will deteriorate going forward. That, coupled with ongoing public debt monetization, will pose major risks to the currency in the next 6-12 months. The central bank will have to defend the exchange rate by selling its foreign exchange reserves and/or hiking policy rates. As a result, liquidity conditions will tighten, hurting the equity market, as it will disproportionally hinder commercial banks and credit flow into the economy. We recommend investors avoid this bourse or underweight it relative to the EM equity benchmark. Feature Chart 1Bangladesh's BoP: A Pillar For Markets Bangladesh's BoP: A Pillar For Markets Bangladesh's BoP: A Pillar For Markets Bangladesh’s balance of payments (BoP) is a key pillar for the country’s financial markets and economy. Essentially, the central bank has been de facto targeting a stable exchange rate as it works to smooth out all material currency fluctuations. Specifically, when a BoP surplus exerts upward pressure on the exchange rate, the central bank accumulates foreign exchange (FX) reserves and reduces interest rates in order to cap currency appreciation. Easing monetary policy and liquidity expansion, in turn, pushes share prices higher (Chart 1). Worryingly, the improvement in Bangladesh’s BoP that has occurred over the past 18 months has now peaked. A decidedly worsening BoP position, coupled with ongoing public debt monetization by the central bank and commercial banks, will pose major risks to the currency in the next 6-12 months. To defend the exchange rate, the central bank will likely sell its FX reserves and will, thereby, shrink the commercial banks’ excess reserves at the central bank, as well as curtail growth in money supply. Such liquidity tightening is a bad omen for the stock market. All in all, we find the risk/reward profile of this stock market currently poor. We therefore recommend equity investors avoid this bourse for now, and dedicated EM equity portfolios to underweight it. The Balance Of Payments: Deterioration Ahead Chart 2Current Account Deficit Is Set To Widen Sharply Current Account Deficit Is Set To Widen Sharply Current Account Deficit Is Set To Widen Sharply Odds are that Bangladesh’s balance of payments surplus has peaked and will soon begin to deteriorate: Current Account: The current account deficit – which has already rolled over – will widen further (Chart 2, top panel). Remittances Remittances into Bangladesh, which amount to a whopping $20 billion annually (or 6% of GDP), are set to drop dramatically (Chart 2, second panel). Crucially, they have been rising markedly due to various factors that will prove to be temporary and will quickly dissipate. First, the Bangladesh government introduced a 2% incentive to encourage Bangladeshi nationals working abroad to send money back home. This has triggered a one-off boost in remittances, as these workers rushed to send back savings. The government has extended this incentive to this fiscal year (July 2020-June 2021). However, it will be less effective as it is highly likely that Bangladeshi foreign workers have already sent most of their savings back when the incentive was originally introduced. Furthermore, global employment will remain weak for some time. Thus, sooner rather than later, the one-off effect of this policy will subside. Second, the official reported value of remittances into the country has been artificially boosted during the pandemic. Particularly, Bangladeshi workers abroad have been forced to send money via official/banking means instead of transporting physical cash while travelling. The official banking channel is easily accounted for in official data, as opposed to physical cash. Third, around 58% of remittances into Bangladesh emanate from GCC countries. These oil-driven economies have been severely struck by two deflationary events: the crude oil price collapse and the pandemic. In turn, GCC businesses have laid-off a massive number of foreign workers, which has forced many Bangladeshi workers to transfer their entire savings back home (Chart 3, top and mid panels). All in all, we find the risk/reward profile of this stock market currently poor. Chart 3Unsustainable And One-Off Rise In Remittances Unsustainable And One-Off Rise In Remittances Unsustainable And One-Off Rise In Remittances There is ample evidence that foreign workers from Bangladesh have been brutally affected by layoffs in GCC states. For instance, several GCC governments have asked the Bangladeshi government to take back undocumented Bangladeshi workers. In turn, the government has set up programs to help receive thousands of workers returning home. As GCC economies struggle to recover fully, Bangladeshi citizens will no longer enjoy the same access to the GCC labor market for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the number of new foreign workers from Bangladesh (of which, most end up in GCC states) has virtually fallen to zero in June and will not rebound to pre-pandemic levels any time soon (Chart 3, bottom panel). All in all, remittances into Bangladesh will fall a great deal in the coming months and will not likely go back to their pre-pandemic levels any time soon. Exports Bangladesh is heavily reliant on textile exports. The latter account for around 70% of the country’s total export earnings. Furthermore, around 60% of the nation’s overall exports are destined to Europe, and 15% to the US. Worryingly, the outlook for Bangladesh’s textile industry is fraught with challenges, both cyclically and structurally. Cyclically, despite recent improvement (Chart 4), demand for apparel in both the US and the euro area will likely be subdued and remain below pre-pandemic levels. Chart 4Subdued DM Demand For Apparels Subdued DM Demand For Apparels Subdued DM Demand For Apparels The basis is that the global pandemic is far from over and continues to evolve idiosyncratically. In turn, renewed social distancing measures (restricting movement and encouraging people to continue working from home) will temper demand for apparels/clothing. Structurally, Bangladesh’s textile industry is falling behind its main competitors, as cheap wages alone are no longer enough to boost textile exports. According to LankaBangla Asset Management, Bangladesh suffers from a lack of technological innovation, poor infrastructure, rising utility costs and inadequate port capacity.1 Indeed, this nation has been losing market share to other Southeast Asian countries. The top panel of Chart 5 illustrates that Bangladesh’s exports of apparels have massively underperformed those of Vietnam in value terms. Finally, the EU and Vietnam signed a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement on February 12, which went into effect on August 1. The agreement drops tariffs significantly on Vietnam’s exports to the EU. That will allow Vietnam to take substantial market share from Bangladesh’s EU market (Bangladesh’s largest textile buyer). Imports Bangladesh’s imports have been contracting less severely than exports, and this will continue to be the case going forward. First, the government announced an expansionary budget for the July 2020-June 2021 fiscal year that entails 9% growth. Higher government expenditures will, in turn, feed into somewhat stronger imports (Chart 6). Chart 5Bangladesh Textile Industry Is Falling Behind Its Competitors Bangladesh Textile Industry Is Falling Behind Its Competitors Bangladesh Textile Industry Is Falling Behind Its Competitors Chart 6Bangladesh: Rising Government Expenditures Will Boost Imports Bangladesh: Rising Government Expenditures Will Boost Imports Bangladesh: Rising Government Expenditures Will Boost Imports   Second, basic goods such as food, medicine, and petroleum account for 30% of Bangladesh’s total imports. Such essential goods imports will remain necessary, regardless of the direction of Bangladesh’s business cycle. Therefore, they will keep Bangladesh’s overall import bill somewhat strong relative to exports. Financial account: To fund its current account deficit, Bangladesh relies on foreign financial inflows. Their outlook is uncertain, however: Private-sector foreign funding Net FDI inflows into Bangladesh have relapsed (Chart 7, top panel). Meanwhile, external borrowing by non-financial companies was already contracting in March 2020 and is unlikely to recover briskly (Chart 7, bottom panel). Crucially, FDI inflows into Bangladesh’s private sector will remain weak, as foreign businesses will likely invest elsewhere in Asia For instance, Bangladesh failed to attract a single company out of the 30 Japanese companies relocating from China. Instead, 15 companies relocated to Vietnam, six to Thailand, four to Malaysia and three to the Philippines. This highlights how unfriendly the Bangladesh business environment is Finally, public governance is deteriorating in Bangladesh. The Awami League (the ruling party) has been busy cracking down on all form of dissent and courting Islamist organizations for legitimacy. The league has also been targeting minorities, journalists, and bloggers. All in all, the government is more concerned with staying in power, and has failed to address the basic needs of its citizens and pressing economic issues. This will be a major reason why FDI to the private sector will remain structurally subdued. The current account deficit is set to deteriorate significantly. Public-sector funding With private-sector foreign funding subdued, Bangladesh has been increasingly relying on public-sector foreign funding to reduce the current account deficit (Chart 8). Chart 7Outlook For Private-Sector Foreign Funding Is Gloomy Outlook For Private-Sector Foreign Funding Is Gloomy Outlook For Private-Sector Foreign Funding Is Gloomy Chart 8Public-Sector Foreign Funding Will Not Keep Rising Indefinitely Public-Sector Foreign Funding Will Not Keep Rising Indefinitely Public-Sector Foreign Funding Will Not Keep Rising Indefinitely   Bangladesh has already received almost $4 billion in funding from international organizations due to the COVID-19 pandemic.2 Therefore, further significant borrowing from such organizations is not in the cards for now. As to bilateral borrowing from countries, Bangladesh has been actively signing infrastructure deals with China. However, most of these deals seem to have gone unimplemented. For instance, of the $24 billion-dollar worth of infrastructure projects, Bangladesh signed with China in 2016, only five projects worth about $1 billion were implemented by December 2019. Furthermore, many of these agreements expire this year and it is unclear whether they will be renegotiated. Most of these projects were not implemented due to Bangladesh’s regulatory hurdles. Bangladesh is now seeking a $6.4-billion infrastructure loan from China. If financing is undertaken and projects are implemented faster than before, this will constitute a major risk to our downbeat analysis on the BoP. The motive behind a faster implementation of these projects funded by China going forward lies in the ongoing and rising tensions between China and India, which could encourage the former to pour money into Bangladesh to bring it closer to its orbit and away from India’s. Doing so would provide China with greater presence in the Bay of Bengal, which directly threatens India’s national and geopolitical interests. Bottom Line: The current account deficit is set to deteriorate significantly. Meanwhile, private-sector funding is very subdued and the outlook for public-sector funding is uncertain. As and when public-sector foreign financial inflows slow, the BoP will deteriorate and that will put depreciation pressure on the currency. Will A Worsening BoP Lead To Monetary Tightening? In the context of improving BoP dynamics, the central bank has not only reduced its policy rate but has also injected large amounts of liquidity by lending to commercial banks and by purchasing government bonds (Chart 9, top panel). Banks have also been purchasing government debt securities (Chart 9, middle panel). The purchases of government debt securities by Bangladesh Bank (BB) and commercial banks have, in turn, led to a considerable acceleration in broad money supply despite weak loan growth (Chart 9, bottom panel). Yet, the deteriorating BoP position along with public debt monetization is a perfect cocktail for currency weakness (Chart 10). Importantly, the BoP does not necessarily need to dip into negative territory for the Bangladeshi taka (BDT) to depreciate. It suffices for the BoP to deteriorate marginally for the currency to weaken (middle panel of Chart 1 on page 2). Chart 9Public Debt Monetization By Central Bank & Commercial Banks Public Debt Monetization By Central Bank & Commercial Banks Public Debt Monetization By Central Bank & Commercial Banks Chart 10Bangladesh: Central Bank Liquidity Injections Is Currency Bearish Bangladesh: Central Bank Liquidity Injections Is Currency Bearish Bangladesh: Central Bank Liquidity Injections Is Currency Bearish   In turn, as the currency begins to depreciate, BB will have to defend the exchange rate given to its objective of securing a stable exchange rate. The central bank will have to sell its foreign exchange reserves and/or hike policy rates as well as reduce its purchases of government bonds. The outcome will be rising interest rates and worsening liquidity conditions. While monetary tightening would eventually stabilize the currency, this policy setting will hurt the equity market, as it will disproportionally hinder commercial banks and credit flow in the economy. Crucially, financials make up about 22% of the Dhaka Stock Exchange index. While monetary tightening would eventually stabilize the currency, this policy setting will hurt the equity market. Non-performing loans (NPLs) of commercial banks will soar amid sluggish growth and higher borrowing costs (Chart 11). Also, given that the central bank tends to cap commercial banks’ lending rates, higher short rates will cause commercial banks’ net interest rate margins to fall significantly. This is negative for banks’ share prices (Chart 12). Chart 11Bangladesh: A New Cycle Of Rising Non-Performing Loans Is In The Cards Bangladesh: A New Cycle Of Rising Non-Performing Loans Is In The Cards Bangladesh: A New Cycle Of Rising Non-Performing Loans Is In The Cards Chart 12Bangladesh: Compressing Net Interest Rate Margins Are Negative For Bank Stocks Bangladesh: Compressing Net Interest Rate Margins Are Negative For Bank Stocks Bangladesh: Compressing Net Interest Rate Margins Are Negative For Bank Stocks     Investment Recommendations Bangladesh’s BoP dynamics are set to deteriorate significantly, which is bearish for the currency. Depreciation pressure on the currency will force the central bank to intervene by selling its FX reserves and/or to hike interest rates. Such monetary and liquidity tightening is negative for share prices (Chart 10, bottom panel). Chart 13Underweight Bangladesh Equities Relative To EM Underweight Bangladesh Equities Relative To EM Underweight Bangladesh Equities Relative To EM We recommend investors underweight this bourse relative to the EM equity benchmark (Chart 13). In terms of absolute performance, the risk-reward is unattractive. Moreover, as with other markets there are signs of frenzy and aggressive retail trading in Bangladesh. Like any retail frenzy, this will likely end with a major downleg in this bourse in the coming months. Ayman Kawtharani Editor/Strategist ayman@bcaresearch.com     Footnotes 1  Please refer to COVID-19 Impact on Bangladesh Economy, June 7, 2020 – LankaBangla Asset Management. 2  Bangladesh this year alone received $1.2 billion from the ADB, $1.3 billion from the World Bank, a $730-million loan from the IMF, and $500 million from the AIIB. It has also received loans from the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Islamic Development Bank, among other organizations and countries.