Base Metals & Iron Ore
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy team evaluated the impact of president-elect Trump’s policies on commodity markets. Trump’s energy policies, while promoting increased domestic oil production, are unlikely to drive immediate growth in US crude output.…
Our Commodity and Energy strategists believe a supply-demand deficit will emerge in 2026, and widen into the end of the decade. Copper demand is set to grow over 4% annually between 2025 and 2030, fueled by the green energy transition, data center…
Speculators have supported copper prices as demand growth slowed below the pace of supply growth. Our Commodity and Energy Strategy colleagues believe this does not bode well for the metal. The copper market faces a situation where demand growth will be…
In a trendless yet volatile year for oil, Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran this weekend is a reminder the outlook is fraught with geopolitical risks. Risks are usually expressed as a geopolitical price premium, but this weekend’s events point to a…
The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay defensive.
One commodity that has not reacted to the bullish demand-side news from the Politburo (see The Numbers) is crude oil. Brent shed over 2% on Thursday, in sharp contrast to Copper’s gains. Oil markets seem to be reacting to a bearish supply-side development…
The PBoC announced further measures to stimulate the economy on Tuesday. It lowered the reserve requirement ratio from 10% to 9.5%, cut the 7-day reverse repo rate by 20 bps (following Monday’s 10 bps cut to the 14-day reverse repo rate), lowered borrowing…
Industrial metals returned a whopping 6% over the past week. Bullish investor sentiment is likely driving these gains. The soft-landing narrative has been gaining traction in recent days with markets pricing in increased odds of an outsized 50-bps Fed rate…
As an industrial metal, copper acts as a barometer of economic activity. Silver and gold are safe-haven assets with inflation-hedging properties, though silver is relatively more sensitive to global growth developments given that industrial applications…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, central banks will continue to be a key source of gold demand. Central bank purchases in the first half of this year exceeded first-half purchases in every year they’ve been tracked going…