Highlights The multiple paid for oil sector profits is collapsing because the market fears that the profits slump will not be short-lived. The fear is not just of a lasting hit to aviation and a slower recovery in road mobility, but…
Highlights Copper prices will continue to rally, following a surge this week to highs not seen since early 2013 on the back of falling inventories, particularly in China, where physical demand has taken stocks to their lowest levels in…
Highlights Pandemic uncertainty is keeping the USD well bid by raising global economic policy uncertainty. When this breaks – i.e., as higher vaccination rates push contagion rates down – the USD will resume its bear market…
Copper prices have rallied roughly 70% since late March, fueled by a weak dollar, generous global liquidity conditions, expectations of a robust economic recovery, and supply constraints. Most of these fundamental…
Highlights Rising commodity prices and a weaker dollar will lead to higher inflation at the consumer level beginning this year. In the real economy, tighter commodity fundamentals – restrained supply growth, increasing demand,…
Copper has had an impressive run this year, rallying 60% since the beginning of April to its highest level since March 2013. However, long copper is among the most crowded macro trades amid rebounding economic activity and hope…
Iron ore prices just hit a 7-year high on the back of both stimulus from China, which has spurred demand from steel-making, and supply disruptions in Brazil. While a near-term pullback is likely, the dominant trend for iron…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent…