Base Metals & Iron Ore
The Q2 2024 earnings season is drawing to a close with 93% of S&P 500 companies having reported results as we go to press. Nearly 80% (60%) of companies have topped earnings (sales) expectations in Q2, according to Factset. Excluding Materials and Real…
Chinese exports in USD terms missed expectations in July, growing by 7.0% y/y, down from 8.6% in June. Conversely, imports rebounded smartly from a 2.3% contraction, rising by 7.2% in July and upending expectations of 3.2%. Slower export growth is…
Industrial metals were one of the worst performing asset classes last month. Have prices declined enough to make them an attractive investment? The outlook for industrial commodity prices is bearish over a 12-month horizon given we expect the US economy to…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, robust iron ore imports are sending a false signal about steel demand. Instead, these supplies are being used to restock inventories. By the end of last year, iron ore stocks at Chinese…
Brent prices have fallen 6% so far in July, reversing their June gains. Interestingly, these losses are occurring despite escalating Middle East tensions and quickening Chinese industrial profit growth in June (see The Numbers), both of which are…
Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?
Copper has experienced a roller-coaster ride so far this year, with front-month futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange gaining nearly 40% from early February to late May, tumbling nearly 15% in just over five weeks, and bouncing around 7% over the last…
The green energy transition will drive a surge in copper demand over a long-term horizon. However, a better entry point to get long will emerge after the next economic downturn begins.
Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.
The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive.