BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service expects copper prices to rise further this year, despite tactical worries. Copper prices will end the year higher versus current levels. However, uncertainty remains…
Highlights Our base case reflects our view that China’s strong fiscal and monetary stimulus, combined with a weaker US dollar, will provide a favorable backdrop for copper markets in 2H20. Supply factors are for the most part…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service examined the outlook for the demand for industrial metals. Prices for base metals likely will continue to rebound from the collapse in GDP caused by…
Highlights Base metals are rebounding faster than oil in 2Q20, reflecting China’s first-in-first-out recovery from the global GDP hit caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (Chart of the Week). By 3Q20, the rebound in oil markets could…
Highlights Uncertainty over the duration of lockdowns globally will continue to hamper the estimation of the global demand recovery for commodities. This uncertainty will continue to fuel safe-haven demand for USD for the balance of…
Highlights Yesterday we published a Special Report titled EM: Foreign Currency Debt Strains. We are upgrading our stance on EM local currency bonds from negative to neutral. Before upgrading to a bullish stance, we would first need…
The Fed is lifting the monetary base as it aggressively injects excess reserves in the banking system via its QE program. Moreover, the Fed is now supporting the corporate bond market and will also start buying small business…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The outlook for markets over the next few months is highly uncertain. On the optimistic side, new COVID-19 cases are probably close to peaking (for now), and so equities could continue to…
Highlights Bulk commodity markets – chiefly iron ore and steel – could see sharp rallies once Chinese authorities give the all-clear on COVID-19 (the WHO’s official name for the coronavirus). These markets rallied…