Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have…
Highlights Gold's performance during the "Red October" equities sell-off, coupled with that of the most widely followed gold ratios (copper- and oil-to-gold), indicates investors and commodity traders are not pricing in a…
Chinese copper imports came in strong in September. While unwrought copper imports reached a 2.5-year high, ores and concentrates forged new record highs. Copper inventories at the three major global exchange warehouses have…
Highlights After tumbling more than 20% between June and August, copper prices have remained largely static. This reflects the tug-of-war between the near-term bullish physical market fundamentals, and the cloudier macro headwinds ahead…
Iron ore prices may have limited downside and could outperform steel prices over the next 12-15 months. This is primarily due to increasing shutdowns of mainland China iron ore mines. Government data show that Chinese domestic…
Highlights Just to be clear: The balance of price risks in oil markets remains to the upside - particularly if we see a supply shock resulting from the loss of as much as 2mm b/d of exports from Iran and Venezuela. Neither the supply side…
Highlights Seasonal capacity restrictions in China during the winter heating months - when pollution from steel mills is particularly high - and continued efforts to limit particulate emissions in major cities will drive steel prices…
Highlights Upside risks on base metals are being ignored. The U.S. labor market continues to tighten and businesses face escalating labor and input costs. There will be costs associated with current fiscal trends, even on a relatively…