As with all bull markets, the question on investors' minds has never been if it would end but when it will end as the former is a certainty and the latter is the source of alpha. We have previously noted that by almost all measures…

Highlights Bond Bear Market: TIPS breakeven inflation rates are still below target, and this gives us high conviction that Treasury yields will increase on a cyclical horizon. If we assume that the equilibrium fed funds rate is…

Highlights Global equities are poised for a "blow-off" rally over the next 12-to-18 months. Long-term return prospects, however, are poor. The final innings of the 1991-2001 economic expansion saw a violent rotation in favor…

Dear Client, Alongside this week's report we are also sending you a fascinating short Special Report written by Jennifer Lacombe of our Global ETF Strategy sister service. The report, which demonstrates the use of ETF flows as a…

Special Report

Markets have been uneasy recently; last month saw the Fed raise rates, combined with language indicating a steeper path for interest rate moves in the coming two years. As of writing, markets are currently assigning a nearly 75%…

Highlights Stage 1: The first stage of the bond bear market is being driven by a re-anchoring of inflation expectations. This stage will be complete when both the 10-year and 5-year/5-year forward TIPS breakeven inflation rates reach…

Highlights The ascent in Treasury yields is likely to flatten out over the coming months, now that rate expectations have almost converged to the Fed dots. This should provide some near-term support for stocks. The structural outlook…

Highlights The best recession indicators are not flashing red, but volatility is rising as the end of the cycle approaches; U.S. fiscal policy is surprising to the upside, as we expected; The next recession will usher in an…

Highlights The spike in volatility last week led to a sharp correction in equities. However, the bull market in equities is not over yet. The Fed's response to the selloff will be critical. Policymakers will closely monitor…

Highlights The end of the low volatility regime could mark a leadership change in global equities away from EM to DM. The near-term risk to our negative stance on EM risk assets is a scenario where Beijing allows RMB appreciation to…