Bear/Bull Market
Contrary to conventional wisdom, most leading indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening, including our very own “Mel rule.” After being overweight stocks last year, we moved to neutral at the start of 2024, and are now putting equities on downgrade watch with the expectation of shifting them to underweight later this year.
Treasurys have sold off substantially since the beginning of the year – the result of stickier-than-anticipated inflation and the repricing of Fed interest rate expectations. Some commentators have warned that there is scope for this selloff to continue amid…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, rising inflation benefits Utilities, Energy, and Materials, and is a headwind for the Consumer Discretionary sector. After a protracted bout of underperformance, the Energy sector has rebounded …
Short speculative positions on Bitcoin at the CME are near theie highest level on record. Some financial commentators have suggested that this bearish positioning in bitcoin could act as kindle and spark a short squeeze. But looking at raw speculative…
We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.
Thematic investing has become increasingly important for investors over the past few years. And yet, in spite of the popularity of thematic strategies, the vast majority of investors underperform when buying into such strategies. A recent study by…
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, dynamics have shifted beneath the surface of the S&P 500. The Materials sector has been rallying sharply since the end of January, gaining 9.9% over this period and taking the top spot among the 11 sectors. This…
Chinese stocks are experiencing their longest rally since the country’s exit from Covid restrictions over a year ago. The MSCI Onshore and Investable indices (in USD terms) have gained 15.8% and 9.1% respectively since February 5th, with the former…
The British pound is the best performing G10 currency so far this year, gaining 0.7% vis-à-vis the US dollar. The outperformance of sterling over the past month coincides with an increase in Citigroup’s UK economic surprise index, both on an absolute basis as…
In a recent report, our US Bond strategists argued that while the year-to-date increase in yields has made Treasures more attractive, conditions are not yet in place to extend duration. Instead, they expect that there will be a better opportunity later this…