Special Report

In a February Special Report titled "Assessing Fair Value In FX Markets" we introduced a set of long-term valuation models based on various fundamentals. We have updated the results and added KRW, INR, PHP, HKD, CLP and COP to our…

The median voter moving to the left has spurred paradigm shifts. These new regimes are giving way to transformational leaders who seek change by breaking convention. As they test their constraints and pursue their preferences, a…

Special Report

Conditions are falling into place for inflation to plunge and monetary easing to progress rapidly. This in combination with structural reforms creates a bullish backdrop for Argentine financial markets. The current economic,…

Special Report

Brazilian risk assets have rallied on the back of investor optimism about the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. But the political games have just begun. With all politicians looking to the October municipal elections and 2018…

Special Report

The current risk premium embedded into Brazilian financial markets is too low and will widen as investors come to realize Brazil's unsustainable public debt dynamics. The government is planning a major shift in its fiscal policy…

Markets will remain stuck in a trading range, driven by two policy feedback loops: the Fed's and China's.

Special Report

A combination of physical rebalancing in the oil markets and geopolitical risk have pushed oil prices above $50/bbl. We therefore close our recommendation - made jointly with BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy team - to long a…

Special Report

Brazilian assets are no longer oversold, are not cheap, and the political reality will likely fall far short of market expectations. Investors should continue to avoid/underweight Brazilian risk assets.

Special Report

Monetary policy at systematically important central banks will determine the winners and losers in global ag export markets going forward. The evolution of fundamentals - supply, demand, and inventories - will remain essential…

The near-term (next month or two) market dynamics in EM risk assets remain a coin toss. Beyond that the outlook for EM risk assets remains downbeat. EM financial markets are complacent and there are many potential negative EM/China…