Highlights The most important question is whether the Fed will hike interest rates by more than what is currently discounted in markets, or less. More hikes will trigger a set of cascading reactions. US bond yields will initially jump…
Highlights In this week’s report we update our Chart Pack, updating familiar charts that underscore our strategic themes and cyclical/tactical views. Social unrest in Kazakhstan points to two of our strategic themes: great power…
Highlights US economic data remains robust, but economic surprises are rolling over relative to other G10 countries. Meanwhile, the Fed is turning a tad more hawkish, which is positive for the greenback in the short term but could hurt…
Highlights UK GDP is on track to overtake pre-pandemic levels. This will strengthen the case for the BoE to tighten monetary policy. That said, markets are aggressively pricing in a hawkish BoE. This creates room for near-term…
The Bank of England kept policy unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. Instead, it revised down its Q3 growth outlook to 2.1% from last month’s 2.9%. However, it highlighted that this revision largely reflects the dampening effect…
Highlights We are reviewing our recommendations. We are also introducing recommendation tables to monitor these positions. Overall, our main recommendations have generated alpha and have a positive batting average. Feature The end…
Highlights Geopolitical risk is trickling back into financial markets. China’s fiscal-and-credit impulse collapsed again. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is ticking back up after the sharp drop from 2020. All of our…
Highlights Important leading indicators of Eurozone activity point to record growth in the coming quarters. Progress on the vaccination front, global pent-up demand, and easing fiscal policy will fuel the Euro Area recovery. Consensus…