In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators.
UK’s CPI growth stands right on the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. However, services inflation remains sticky, growing at a constant 5.7% y/y in June. Moreover, the deceleration in wage growth remains insufficient…
We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength…
The Labour Party won the UK election, just as BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service predicted back in 2022. However, this win is unlikely to rock the proverbial geopolitical boat. Popular enthusiasm for Sir Keir…
In this week's report, we review the impact of political developments, as well as incoming fundamental data, on our positioning.
The new Labour government will have flexibility to respond to macro shocks, which is positive for the UK in general, namely GBP-EUR, and also gilts in absolute terms. But over the long run, tax hikes will likely surprise to the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the BoE will start cutting rates in September, but the pace of subsequent rate cuts will be modest until a recession engulfs Western economies in early 2025…
We look at the implications a various European central bank meetings this week, for currency strategy.
The UK unemployment rate surprised to the upside in the 3-month period ending in April, ticking up to 4.4% against expectations it would remain stable at March’s originally reported 4.3%. Concurrently, wage growth remains…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the improvement in global economic data will put some upward pressure on yields while pressuring the dollar lower (as a counter-cyclical currency). When it…