We apply a systematic approach to investing based on economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises to the foreign exchange market. The signals from this framework are broadly consistent with the tactical views of our FX…
Recently, small-cap stocks have shown signs of outperformance. In this report, we examine whether the rebound is sustainable by analyzing long-term structural trends, the macroeconomic backdrop, the impact of tariffs, and other key…
The latest US durable goods orders and consumer confidence figures suggest that hard and soft data are converging, but stocks remain at risk. After months of rising prints, new orders for manufactured goods sank by 6.3% in April…
Our Commodity strategists stay short oil and long gold as global demand weakens and OPEC+ offers no support. Brent’s floor has likely fallen to $50, and bearish supply and demand forces continue to dominate the price outlook. …
Oil has borne the brunt of the year-to-date deterioration in cyclically sensitive financial assets. It is a key underperformer both within the commodity space and among global risk assets. This underperformance underscores that in…
The sharp drop in March’s NFIB survey reinforces our defensive asset allocation, as small business sentiment weakens amid rising policy uncertainty. We remain overweight government bonds and underweight risk assets, while tactically…
Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an…
In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.