Business Cycles
The Bank of Japan’s policy normalization has been accompanied by exceptional outperformance by Japanese banks. Japanese banks have outperformed both the country’s broader market as well as the MSCI ACW Banks index by 10.3% and 2.6%, respectively, so far this…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investor sentiment in Vietnamese markets has soured significantly since 2022, when the authorities' sweeping crackdown on alleged corruption in the real estate sector expanded to political…
The 10-year Treasury yield rose in the aftermath of the Fed’s jumbo rate cut on Wednesday. Our US Bond strategists noted that this move reflects the fact that the downward revisions to the dots still fall short of the magnitude of cuts embedded in the…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions. Overall exports, which are highly volatile on a month-on-month basis, decelerated at a…
One key takeaway from Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference is the Fed’s unshaken conviction that it can avoid a recession. A risk-on mood dominated markets on Thursday, with the S&P 500 breaching new all-time highs while the 10-year Treasury yield rose…
The Fed started its easing cycle with a bang, cutting the policy rate by 50 basis points in September, above consensus expectations but in line with odds embedded in the futures and OIS curves. Our US Bond strategists had highlighted it is unusual for the…
Despite the recent correction, US equity leadership remains intact. The MSCI US index has outperformed global markets by 3.8% in 2024YTD. A 7.8% expansion in forward earnings drove the MSCI US index’ 2024YTD gains which was higher than the increases in…
US retail sales grew 0.1% m/m in August and beat expectations of a 0.2% monthly contraction. The positive surprise seemingly spurred equity market gains on Tuesday morning. However, details do not paint as rosy a picture as the headline number…
Canadian headline CPI inflation decelerated at a faster-than-anticipated pace from 2.5% y/y to 2.0% in August, the slowest since 2021. Notably, core median and trimmed-mean CPI ticked 0.1 ppt and 0.3 ppt lower to 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Lower oil…