According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy and European Investment Strategy services, Spain’s economy is outperforming that of the Eurozone thanks to lower inflation and exploding tourism activity. These trends…
In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.
Softer-than-anticipated CPI inflation caused UK Gilts to rally and the British pound to weaken on Wednesday. Headline CPI inflation fell from 8.7% y/y to a 15-month low of 7.9% y/y in June – a greater decline than…
The South African rand has been a key winner amid the recent improvement in risk sentiment. Notably, the ZAR's 10.9% appreciation versus the US dollar since May 25 has made it the best performing major currency over this…
Citigroup’s global economic surprise index has fallen sharply over the past few months and is now slightly negative – indicating that economic data have surprised to the downside. Yet beneath the surface, there is…
US speculative-grade corporate bond (junk) spreads rose significantly last year in response to a sharp increase in US interest rates and widespread concerns about a US recession. Junk spreads have since come in from their mid-…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that the failure of EM stocks, Asian currencies and commodities to stage a broad-based outperformance is consistent with their macro thesis that global trade/…
In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation…
US retail sales delivered a mixed signal on Tuesday. On the one hand, overall retail sales growth decelerated from 0.5% m/m to 0.2% m/m in June– disappointing expectations of 0.5% m/m. Spending on retail sales excluding…
Canada’s CPI release showed headline CPI inflation cooled from 3.4% y/y to 2.8% in June – below estimates calling for a less pronounced moderation to 3.0% y/y. This marks inflation’s first return to the Bank of…