Business Cycles
The June US CPI release showed inflationary pressures cooled last month. The headline index moderated from 4.0% y/y to 3.0% y/y – slightly below expectations of 3.1% y/y. Similarly, core CPI growth eased from 5.3% y/y to 4.8% y/y – a sharper slowdown than the…
As expected, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates for the second consecutive month after restarting its tightening campaign last month. At 5.0%, the policy rate now stands 4.75 percentage points above where it was at the start of the tightening cycle last…
Wheat, corn, and soybean all traded lower at the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday following the US Department of Agriculture’s latest release of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – down 4.2%, 3.5%, and 2.4%, respectively. …
The Q2-2023 earnings season will kick off this Friday. The following are the investors’ “Cliff notes” to this earnings season. Market Expectations Earnings growth: According to Refinitiv IBES, earnings will contract by 6.4% y/y. If that is an actual…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy team, China’s fiscal support will be limited due to political and economic factors. China has heavily relied on government expenditure support to sustain its economic growth in recent years. However,…
China’s credit expansion surprised to the upside in June. Aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.22 trillion – above expectations of CNY 3.10 trillion and exceeding CNY 1.56 trillion in the prior month. Similarly, the CNY 3.05 trillion worth of new…
Hot UK wage data focused investors’ attention on the Bank of England’s battle against sticky inflationary pressures on Tuesday. The 7.3% y/y increase in weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) in the three months to May surpassed expectations of a 7.1% y/y rise…
The NFIB survey provided a slightly positive signal about the US economy in June. Small business optimism improved from 89.4 to a 7-month high of 91.0 – beating expectations of a more muted increase to 89.9. Details of the report corroborate the signal…
A range of indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector is currently under duress. But should this weakness be extrapolated into the rest of the year? The US manufacturing cycle tends to follow a very predictable wave-like pattern. Each cycle tends…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook is that inflation will be sufficiently weak for the Fed to go on an extended pause after one more 25 basis point rate hike this month. This will cause both Treasury yields and slopes to trend…