In a recently published report, our China Investment Strategy team revisited the issue of a liquidity trap in China. A liquidity trap is a condition that occurs when lower borrowing costs are unable to boost credit demand and…
In their just-published update of US housing market conditions, our colleagues at the BCA Bank Credit Analyst focus on whether May’s strong showing in new home starts and sales in May – up 21% and 12%,…
Our US Bond Strategy service responds to recent data releases which showed that real economic growth and the labor market are surprisingly resilient, while inflation pressures continued to decline. The 10-year Treasury yield…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
The preliminary inflation prints for June in the major euro area economies highlight a growing divergence in inflation outcomes. There was good news: headline CPI inflation in Italy fell to 6.7% in June from 8.0% in May, while…
Since the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) released its latest monetary policy minutes on June 27th, the Brazilian real has depreciated for three days in a row. Will the BRL resume its strengthening trajectory, or is the currency set…
Our Counterpoint service argues that it is not enough that inflation stabilizes at 3 percent for inflation expectations to be anchored and central banks must make inflation undershoot 2 percent for some time to prevent a repeat…
The combination of a global manufacturing recession and tight/tightening policy is raising a red flag for global non-TMT stocks. In China, households are entering a liquidity trap, and deflationary pressures are heightening.…
There have been big downside surprises to inflation over the last few weeks. Today, the May monthly print of Australian inflation (covers 67% of all items), came in at 5.6%, versus 6.8% the previous month. This followed a…