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Business Cycles

Unwarranted Policy Tightening
In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team posited that the bear market in Malaysian stocks will be prolonged. Disinflationary forces have taken hold of the Malaysian economy: money supply has plunged, bond yields are falling, and the yield…
Daily Insights
The Reflation Indicator And The US Dollar
Our Emerging Markets Strategy’s Reflation Confirming Indicator has been gapping down, signaling a material rebound in the broad trade-weighted US dollar. The broad trade-weighted US dollar is a counter-cyclical currency, i.e., it sells off when global…
Daily Insights
Hit, Miss, Moving Forward

Momentum, high cash balances, FOMO, and expectations of soft landing drive the market higher. This rally may continue for a while, but macroeconomic headwinds are intensifying and will eventually derail the rally. It is too early to celebrate victory.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Turkey: Time To Go In?

Assuming yesterday’s policy rate hike is a sign that Turkey is finally veering towards orthodox economic policies; should investors rush in?

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
China: Flirting With Deflation

China is facing a risk of deflation. Marginal interest rate cuts and targeted stimulus will be insufficient to boost China’s growth given the current deflationary mindset and the danger is that the economy may be entering a liquidity trap. Deflation is bullish for government bonds, but negative for equity prices. Chinese share prices will continue to decline.

China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Singapore NODX: A Pessimistic Signal For Global Manufacturing
Singapore’s exports have historically acted as a good gauge for the health of the global economy. As a small open economy that is extremely exposed to fluctuations in the Asian and global manufacturing cycles, Singapore’s exports – particularly of electronics…
Daily Insights
BoJ: From Policy Divergence To Policy Convergence?
The Japanese yen was the worst performing major currency on Friday. The weakness followed news that the BoJ kept its policy rate untouched at -0.1% – as widely expected – and did not make any changes to its yield curve control program. While the BoJ statement…
Daily Insights
US Consumer Sentiment: A Durable Rebound?
Preliminary results of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey sent a positive signal about household morale in June. The Sentiment index rose by a greater-than-anticipated 4.7 points to 63.9 on the back of improvements in both the Current…
Daily Insights
Will Global Cyclical Equity Sectors Continue Outperforming?
Once again, global cyclical stocks have recently been outperforming defensive sectors. This comes after the late-2022/early-2023 relative rally in cyclical stocks was cut short by the emergence of bank turmoil in early March. Valuations are providing a…
Daily Insights
Times of Extreme Tightening Support Private Credit
According to BCA Research’s newly launched Private Markets & Alternatives service, the present moment in the business cycle appears to be favorable for Private Credit relative to Private Equity. The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics