According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the leading indicators of inflation continue to point down, suggesting that the Fed may be able to finally go on hold after hiking one last time in July.…
On June 7th, the VIX closed just below 14, its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic. The index has been on an unprecedented downtrend since March. In fact, the most recent 60-day change in the VIX is in the bottom 3% of…
Investor sentiment has improved meaningfully in recent weeks. According to the latest AAII survey, the share of respondents with a bullish outlook jumped from 29.1% to 44.5%. It crossed above the historical average of 37.5% for…
Chinese producer prices sent a disappointing signal about the domestic economy on Friday. The pace of decline in producer prices accelerated from -3.6% in April to -4.6% in May – worse than expectations of a -4.3% drop. The…
Near the half-year mark, it is safe to say 2023 has been different than 2022 for equity investors. After being brought down in bear market territory by Europe’s energy crisis and sudden global shift to hawkish monetary…
The final Q1 GDP release shows the Euro Area economy contracted by 0.1% q/q last quarter, a downwards revision from estimates of a 0.1% expansion. To the extent that this follows a 0.1% q/q decline in Q4 2022, the revised numbers…
The latest increase in US weekly jobless claims came in above consensus estimates. Initial jobless claims jumped to 261 thousand in the week ended June 3 – above expectations of a 235 thousand increase. This marks the…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst…
Eurozone households are becoming less concerned about the near-term outlook for inflation. The results of the latest ECB Consumer Expectations survey show a significant drop in median 12-month inflation expectations from 5.0% in…