Chinese trade data delivered a disappointing signal about the global manufacturing cycle. After a brief rebound in March and April, exports dropped by 7.5% y/y in USD terms last month – below consensus estimates of a 1.8% y…

  According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, the near-term consensus outlook has grudgingly improved but is still excessively bearish. Economic surprises will continue to boost stocks until a 2023 recession…

  The Swedish manufacturing PMI declined to 40.6 in May, the lowest level since June 2020. This deterioration in Sweden’s manufacturing activity not only reflects the domestic economy, but it also highlights weaknesses in the…

  After a brief period of outperformance in late-2022/early-2023, Emerging Market stocks have been underperforming their Developed Market counterparts since January 19. While the DM equity benchmark is up 6.9% over this period, the…

  The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25 basis point rate hike on Tuesday, bringing the Cash Rate up to 4.1%. This marks the second consecutive rate increase following a pause in April. The post-meeting…

  Tuesday’s German factory orders release sent a disappointing signal about industrial demand. Although the pace of decline eased from -10.9% m/m to -0.4% m/m in April, it fell below expectations of a 2.8% m/m increase. Both…

  The ISM PMI sent a disappointing signal about US service sector activity in May. The headline index unexpectedly fell from 51.9 to 50.3 – the weakest level since December and surprising expectations of an improvement to 52.…

  In our May In Review Insight, we showed that last month, UK stocks posted the lowest z-score among all major global equity markets, underperforming their Eurozone peers. What explains this relative weakness? The chart above…

  BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service continues to recommend an overweight on government bonds, neutral on cash, and underweight on equities and credit. Market technicals do not suggest this is a robust…