Business Cycles
The latest increase in US weekly jobless claims came in above consensus estimates. Initial jobless claims jumped to 261 thousand in the week ended June 3 – above expectations of a 235 thousand increase. This marks the highest level since October 2021. Rising…
The final Q1 GDP release shows the Euro Area economy contracted by 0.1% q/q last quarter, a downwards revision from estimates of a 0.1% expansion. To the extent that this follows a 0.1% q/q decline in Q4 2022, the revised numbers indicate that the Euro Area…
Near the half-year mark, it is safe to say 2023 has been different than 2022 for equity investors. After being brought down in bear market territory by Europe’s energy crisis and sudden global shift to hawkish monetary policy in 2022, the S&P 500 was…
Chinese trade data delivered a disappointing signal about the global manufacturing cycle. After a brief rebound in March and April, exports dropped by 7.5% y/y in USD terms last month – below consensus estimates of a 1.8% y/y decline. The decrease was…
Eurozone households are becoming less concerned about the near-term outlook for inflation. The results of the latest ECB Consumer Expectations survey show a significant drop in median 12-month inflation expectations from 5.0% in March to 4.1% in April – the…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst expectations in Q1-23, yet in real…
Tuesday’s German factory orders release sent a disappointing signal about industrial demand. Although the pace of decline eased from -10.9% m/m to -0.4% m/m in April, it fell below expectations of a 2.8% m/m increase. Both capital and consumer goods orders…
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25 basis point rate hike on Tuesday, bringing the Cash Rate up to 4.1%. This marks the second consecutive rate increase following a pause in April. The post-meeting statement stressed that at 7%,…
After a brief period of outperformance in late-2022/early-2023, Emerging Market stocks have been underperforming their Developed Market counterparts since January 19. While the DM equity benchmark is up 6.9% over this period, the EM index has lost 4.0% in USD…
The Swedish manufacturing PMI declined to 40.6 in May, the lowest level since June 2020. This deterioration in Sweden’s manufacturing activity not only reflects the domestic economy, but it also highlights weaknesses in the global industrial cycle. Sweden…