Falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. As such, we recommend that investors shift their duration stance from underweight to neutral over a 12 month-and-longer horizon…
In Section I, we note that while recent inflation developments point to some supply-side and pandemic-related disinflation, they also point to potentially stickier inflation over the coming several months. The inflation, monetary…
We recommend that investors use the following framework to think about whether potential disinflation would be bullish or bearish for share prices: disinflation will prove to be bullish for global share prices if it is due to an…
Banks face many challenges from a slower economy and tighter financial conditions, which offset benefits from rising rates and higher net interest income. It is likely that things will get worse, a sentiment supported by many banking…
BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team’s view remains that US inflation will prove to be sticky. That said, in this report, we examine under what conditions a considerable drop in US core inflation, whenever it transpires, would be…
Sentiment toward stocks is depressed and European valuations have declined substantially. However, the earnings outlook remains poor. Which side will win?
The Fed says that to get back to 2 percent inflation, the US unemployment rate must increase by ‘just’ 0.6 percent through 2023-24. All well and good you might think, except that the Fed is forecasting something that has been…
We remain bearish on equities. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon that is embedded and perpetuated by a wage-price spiral. The Fed will “keep at it until the job is done.” Economic growth is slowing, and an earnings recession as soon…
Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…