Executive Summary Unit Labor Costs, Not Oil Prices, Are The Key To US Core Inflation Inflation is not about oil, food or used car prices. Looking at prices of individual components of a consumer basket is akin to missing…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Dollar Rises During Recessions At 106.5, the dollar DXY index is certainly pricing in a recession deeper than during the Covid-19 crisis.…
Executive Summary More Tightening To Come In the following report we answer the most asked questions from our recent “Bear Market 2.0” webcast. Macroeconomic backdrop and inflation: While commodity…
Executive Summary Investors Should Mind Surging US Wages Despite Western sanctions on Russia, the country’s oil exports have not collapsed. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) estimates, Russia…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment Over the past week we have been visiting clients along the US west coast. In this report we hit some of the highlights from the most important and frequently asked questions. Xi…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will host the monthly Counterpoint Webcast on Monday, July 25. Please mark the date in your calendar, and I do hope you can join. Executive Summary Central banks face a ‘Sophie’s…
Executive Summary No Funding For Property Developers, No Land Sales Beijing’s plan to bring forward RMB 2.6 trillion of financing for infrastructure expenditures in H2 2022 is a considerable stimulus. However, this…
Executive Summary Global risk assets are oversold, and investor sentiment is downbeat. In this context, a technical equity rebound cannot be ruled out. However, we do not think it will be the beginning of a major cyclical rally. The…
Given that their fundamentals are intertwined, the various commodities typically exhibit similar behavior. Demand for energy and industrial metals strengthens when the global manufacturing cycle is on an upswing. Similarly,…