Crucial leading indicators of the global and European economies continue to deteriorate. How should investors position their European portfolios to benefit from these trends?
August nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142 thousand workers, from a downwardly revised 89 thousand and below expectations of 165 thousand. Payroll growth fell to a four-year-low of 116 thousand on a 3-month moving average basis.…
The July Employment Situation report had already cemented the case for a September rate cut and Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole comments dispelled any remaining doubt about an imminent monetary easing cycle. All the labor…
BCA’s Global Leading Economic Indicator, a GDP-weighted average of the standardized leading indicators of 23 DM and EM economies, has had a good track record of predicting year-on-year changes in the IMF global real GDP…
The Fed’s Beige Book compiles qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its 12 Districts. It precedes FOMC meetings by a couple of weeks and is meant to help participants trace the…
US job openings declined from a downwardly revised 7.91 million to 7.67 million in July, the lowest level since 2021 and well short of expectations of 8.1 million. The downward revision indicates that labor demand actually…
In a widely expected move, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point for a third consecutive month in September, lowering the benchmark overnight rate to 4.25%. Policymakers also signaled…
Both leading PMI measures painted a sluggish picture of China’s economic conditions in August. The NBS composite PMI suggested that overall activity barely expanded (50.1) and that the manufacturing sector’s…
The Q2 2024 earnings season is drawing to a close with 93% of S&P 500 companies having reported results as we go to press. Nearly 80% (60%) of companies have topped earnings (sales) expectations in Q2, according to Factset…