Business Cycles
Last week, economists polled by Bloomberg revised their consensus 2024 US GDP forecasts upwards, from 2.3% to 2.5%. Government spending and private investment were both revised 0.3 ppts higher to 3.0% and 3.9%, respectively, while consumption growth forecasts…
The market is currently expecting the Fed to cut rates by 100 bps over the course of 2024 and by another 120 bps throughout the first eight months of 2025. However, our Global Investment strategists expect the extent of 2024 rate cuts to undershoot…
Chinese industrial profits rose by 4.1% y/y (3.6% YTD y/y) in July, from 3.6% (3.5%) in June. Upstream mining industries’ profits contracted 9.5% from January to July 2024, whereas downstream manufacturing sectors’ profits rose 5.0%. The NBS reported that…
During his Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell dispelled any remaining doubts about a September rate cut. Still, easing monetary policy is unlikely to result in a soft landing. First, recessions have historically started shortly after the Fed began cutting…
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure surprised to the upside in August, rising from 100.3 to 103.3, above expectations of 100.7. Consumers’ assessment of present economic conditions climbed 0.8 points to 134.4, while their expectations about the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will come to fruition. This Nordic country…
Sentiment among German companies declined in August from 87.0 to 86.6. Current conditions shed 0.6 points to 86.5 while the expectations component ticked 0.2 points lower. It nevertheless exceeded consensus expectations for a larger decline. Deteriorating…
In this Special Report, we assess the impact of monetary policy tightening on major economies. Interest rate sensitive GDP already slowed significantly in response to the aggressive rate hiking cycle. Despite the beginning of policy easing, our forward-looking indicators suggest monetary policy will continue to weigh on the economy.
UK GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% in the second quarter, and the latest PMI data underscores contrasts with its DM counterparts (see The Numbers). Several tailwinds are supporting the UK economy. Two-year Gilt yields have fallen nearly 200 bps since June…
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down the number of workers on payrolls by 818 thousand over the twelve months period ending March 2024. This largest downward revision since 2009 thus implies that the labor market has been far less resilient than…