Historically, interest-rate sensitive sectors such as financials and real estate have tended to post the highest returns in the 3 months preceding the first Fed rate cut. Interestingly, industrials, typically a deep cyclical…

  The Kansas City Labor Market Conditions Indicator (LMCI) is a broad measure of labor market trends incorporating 24 national labor market variables. It has been on a steady downtrend since 2022, though at 0.6, it remains slightly…

  Brent prices have fallen 6% so far in July, reversing their June gains. Interestingly, these losses are occurring despite escalating Middle East tensions and quickening Chinese industrial profit growth in June (see The Numbers…

  According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a foreign shock is likely to tip the Eurozone economy into a recession because important vulnerabilities have emerged domestically. Policy is restrictive…

  Preliminary estimates suggest that US durable goods orders plummeted in June. They contracted 6.6% m/m, largely disappointing expectations of a faster pace of growth. However, a whopping 127% monthly decrease in highly…

  The US economy has clearly cooled from its above-trend pace of growth in 2023. The consensus view among BCA Research’s strategists project that this deceleration will eventually culminate in a recession by year-end or early…

  The S&P 600 and Russell 2000 have outperformed the S&P 500 by close to 10% since July 9. Small caps typically outperform in the early stages of economic expansions when growth is accelerating, demand-driven inflation is…

  BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remained tactically bullish on stocks for most of 2023, but shifted to neutral at the start of 2024, and downgraded stocks to underweight in late June. Its latest report…

  Way back in the 1970s and 1980s, before investment returns were assessed in relation to benchmarks and return of capital had the upper hand over return on capital, BCA researchers were invited to consider the following thought…