Brazilian policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place. There is no combination of fiscal and monetary policies that can assure decent growth, on-target inflation, a stable exchange rate, and public debt sustainability. We…
China’s February consumer prices fell 0.7% y/y after expanding on an annual basis in January. Producer price deflation stood at -2.2% y/y, roughly unchanged from a month prior. China’s first quarter data is heavily influenced by…
Our China and Emerging Markets strategists assessed China’s outlook after the National People’s Congress concluded last week. China’s latest fiscal stimulus is only marginally larger than last year’s, with a combined credit and…
After range-bound trading late last year, oil prices began the year rising to resistance levels, before falling and testing support on the downside. Oil remains caught between conflicting supply and demand risks. Increased…
The February ISM Services beat estimates, rebounding to 53.5 from 52.8. All activity subcomponents increased, with new orders and employment ticking up. Price pressures however also increased, as prices paid went up and suppliers’…
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a slowing economy, a moderating labor market, and rising price pressures. The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing slower growth and decreased confidence…
The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal…
The February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index beat expectations, but retreated to 18.1 from last month’s lofty 44.3 reading. All activity subcomponents pulled back, except for delivery times. The Philly Fed index is volatile…
Preliminary estimates of Q4 real GDP growth in Japan was stronger than expected, rising to 2.8% q/q annualized from 1.7% in Q3. Domestic demand remained strong, and the GDP deflator increased to 2.8% y/y. Japan’s economy is…
