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Business Cycles

Two Key Risks To Our Recession View
We expect continued softening in the US economy will lead to decelerating wage growth, muffling the principal consumption driver. Because the US has been the foremost catalyst for global growth in this cycle, a US recession will eventually morph into a global…
Daily Insights
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Month-In-Review: Monetary Versus Fiscal Policy

In this week's report, we review the impact of political developments, as well as incoming fundamental data, on our positioning.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Global PMIs Reveal International Trade Flows Deteriorated In June
The stabilization in global growth continued in June. The JPM Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.9, nearly in line with May’s 22-month high. However, international trade flows deteriorated notably. The new export orders component started contracting in…
Daily Insights
Does Today’s Low Unemployment Rate Guarantee A Soft Landing?
The US unemployment rate stands at just 4.0% today following 27 consecutive sub-4% readings. Does this low unemployment rate guarantee a soft landing in the US economy? Our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) team’s base case is that the US economy will fall…
Daily Insights
Bleak Capex Outlook Bodes Ill For Cyclical Assets
US durable goods orders grew by 0.1% m/m in May, a tick below April’s pace, and upending preliminary expectations they would decline by 0.5%. Moreover, the contraction in core capital goods shipments (an input into the calculation of GDP) was revised lower…
Daily Insights
Will The Greenback Continue To Appreciate?
The trade-weighted US dollar ranked among the top performing major asset classes we track in June. It hit a low on June 3rd and has appreciated by 1.5% since then. This is despite no change in short-end rate differentials and an outright narrowing in long-end…
Daily Insights
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Remember, Remember, the Fifth of November

In our Volume I – The Alpha Report – we posit that the French bond market reaction is a mere amuse bouche for what is coming to the US. All year, we have warned investors that US politics could induce a bond market riot. This moment is nigh. Act accordingly!

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
What Are Bond Market Inflows Telling Us?
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, while equity markets can drive US dollar crosses from time to time, bond market inflows matter a lot more. Part of the US exceptionalism story can be explained by the fact that: US…
Daily Insights
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Recession Signs Increase

Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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UK Election: Defeat Of Two Nationalisms

The Labour Party’s comeback in the UK is widely expected and will lead to fiscal stimulus consisting of increased public spending with minimal tax hikes. But a sweeping single-party majority will reduce social unrest only at the cost of higher taxes over the medium term. The paradigm has shifted away from the Thatcherite low-tax regime of the now-discredited Tories. v

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken

Related Topics

Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics