The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -3.6 to 0.3 in June, easily surpassing expectations of a more muted improvement to -1.7. Notably, the Expectation and Current Situation subindices rose to 28-month and 13-month…
The redeployment of pandemic-era excess savings has been a significant driver of US consumption growth and helped the economy avoid a recession last year. Although pandemic-era fiscal support was less generous in China,…
Sweden is a small export-oriented economy and its high sensitivity to global trade makes it a good bellwether of global growth developments. The headwinds from high borrowing costs are relatively more pronounced in Sweden…
US nonfarm payrolls grew by 272 thousand in May, accelerating from 165 thousand in April, and swamping expectations of 180 thousand. Average hourly earnings increased by 4.1% y/y from an upwardly revised 4.0%. However, the…
China’s exports in USD terms surged 7.6% y/y in May, from 1.5% in April, surpassing expectations of a 5.7% gain. However, base effects largely overstate the strength of Chinese exports given that they contracted by 8% y/…
Our colleagues at Global Investment Strategy have shown that postwar US (and global) manufacturing cycles have tended to last 3 years, divided equally between an 18-month up leg and an 18-month down leg. This framework has been a…
US Treasury yields bounced after this morning’s employment report. We offer our updated views about how long the recent trading range will hold.
BCA’s Global Leading Economic Indicator has had a good track record of predicting year-on-year changes in the IMF global real GDP growth series. This GDP-weighted average of the standardized leading indicators of 23 DM and…
Healthcare has underperformed the S&P 500 by 23% since early 2023. Profit margins have been squeezed since the pandemic revenue windfall dried up and because long-term contracts prevented companies from raising prices in line…
The silver-to-gold ratio has surged close to 10% this year on the back of silver prices catching up to gold. Silver has returned 22% on a YTD basis, against 12% for gold, 13% for industrial metals and 5% for the broad commodity…