Business Cycles

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal support will surprise to the upside at the Two Sessions. But Trump's China policy will cause volatility. Now that the stock market is cracking, reinitiate defensive trades, such as long treasuries versus US stocks and long global defensives versus cyclicals.

Argentina is entering a regime shift from the traditional short boom-bust cycles of the past 50 years. Profound structural reforms will result in a productivity boom, leading to a more durable economic expansion while keeping with the disinflation trend. Authorities will likely lift capital and currency controls in the second quarter of this year. All in all, odds are that Argentinian assets have entered a multi-year bull market.

China barely hit its growth target in 2024 by shifting back to its old model of exports, racking up a record trade surplus with the world – right as Donald Trump walks back into the White House. Tariffs will elicit larger fiscal stimulus even as China rolls out innovations such as DeepSeek to meet its 2025 industrial goals, creating a volatile mix this year.

• Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. 
• Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.
• China will retaliate against Trump and stimulate its domestic economy, while pursuing stronger trade ties with other countries. Europe will also retaliate. 
• Geopolitical risk will shift from Ukraine-Russia to Israel-Iran, where the conflict will continue to escalate until a crisis point is reached within 2025.