Business Cycles

The S&P GSCI broad commodity index has returned 8% year-to-date. Improving investor sentiment has significantly broadened the rally since the beginning of the year. Over 65% of commodities in the index are now trading above their 200-day moving averages,…

The revival in global growth momentum continued in April. The JPM Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, marking its third consecutive month of expansion. Details underscored solid demand conditions. Output and new orders continued to rise and new…

Health care stocks have underperformed the US broad market by over 20% since the beginning of 2023. Indeed, vaccination campaigns during the pandemic years had initially boosted health care companies’ earnings. However, this tailwind eventually faded.…

According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, investors should look to the stock-to-bond ratio to time the breakout in yields. The strong positive correlation between stock and bond returns has been a consistent feature of the inflationary…

European retail sales were stronger-than-expected in March. They grew by 0.7% y/y from an upwardly revised 0.5% contraction in February, upending expectations that they would continue to decline. Improved sales in food products were the main drivers,…

The Caixin services and composite PMIs were broadly unchanged in April. The services PMI decreased from 52.7 to 52.5, in line with expectations, while the composite PMI increased from 52.7 to 52.8. Details underscored positive dynamics. New business growth…

The final estimates of Spain's and France’s services PMIs were revised upwards of expectations in April, increasing from 56.1 to 56.2 and from 50.5 to 51.3 respectively. The services European harmonized PMI also increased from 52.9 to a higher-than-expected…

According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, while US economic data clearly show that labor demand has slowed from its peak two years ago, it isn’t yet clear whether this slowing represents a re-normalization to pre-pandemic levels or the start of a…

The cyclical outlook is gloomy for EUR/USD. We subscribe to neither the soft-landing nor the no-landing view and expect a recession to occur in late 2024/early 2025. The pro-cyclical euro would suffer in a global downturn while a recession would support the…

According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, commodity prices typically rally toward the end of the business cycle. In the past six recessions, the S&P 500 peaked before commodity prices. While there is significant variability…