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Business Cycles

The Outlook For CE3 Currencies
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that among the CE3 currencies, the zloty and the koruna will be the relative winners, while the forint will likely be the worst performer of the three. That said, all three CE3 currencies will weaken…
Daily Insights
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Banks: From Bread And Butter To Pastries

Q1 earnings results of the largest US banks have demonstrated that the engine of recent growth in profitability, NII, has faltered as funding costs are rising fast. However, the resurgence in non-NII thanks to a revival in corporate activity has been a saving grace. Earnings growth appears to have bottomed, while valuations are attractive. To play up portfolio exposure to an upcoming surge in capital markets activity, and minimize exposure to declining profitability in traditional banking services, overweight Diversified Banks and Capital Markets, and underweight Regional Banks.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
Asian Trade Suggests Strong Global Growth Momentum
Export dynamics of small open economies are a bellwether for global growth. The latest Taiwanese and Korean export numbers are consistent with a revival in global trade. Taiwanese export orders grew by 1.2% y/y in March following a 10.4% y/y contraction in…
Daily Insights
Is The Market Now Pricing No Landing?
By the end of 2023, the “soft landing” scenario became the dominant narrative in financial markets. Following the regional banking scare in March of last year, market participants slowly came around to the view that the economy was entering a goldilocks…
Daily Insights
Downside Risk To Margins
According to BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service, European profit margins have downside because they are both elevated and procyclical. European net margins stand at 7.7% above their long-term average of 5%. Analyst expectations…
Daily Insights
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The Margin Risk

European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Fed Beige Book Suggests Lackluster Consumption
BCA’s US Beige Book Monitor – an indicator we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s Beige Book report and which historically tracks US GDP growth – has improved in April. Nevertheless — and despite March's hot retail sales and February's…
Daily Insights
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Hides Softer Underlying Dynamics
The headline Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for April delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, increasing from 3.2 to a twelve-month high of 15.5 and beating expectations it would soften to 2.0. Measures of demand improved with new orders and…
Daily Insights
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Greeting Q1-2024 Earnings Season

In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Is The Tide Turning For UK Equities?
UK stocks posted one of the largest positive abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. The MSCI UK index has gained 2% relative to Eurozone stocks since late February. However, the relative performance of UK equities…
Daily Insights

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Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics