The past week brought a slew of positive US economic data, all suggesting that conditions remain robust and a recession is not imminent. The ISM Manufacturing PMI crossed into expansion for the first time since September 2022,…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service maintains a neutral view on the dollar for the next three months. The team continues to believe that the dollar is due for a long-term bear market, but momentum is in…
As a small open economy, Sweden’s economic performance is a good barometer of global growth developments. Swedish PMIs for March were overall positive. The Manufacturing PMI rose to the 50 boom-bust line following 19…
Climbing US bond yields, alongside higher oil prices, might spoil the party for global risk assets. There are budding cracks in EM domestic bonds, and even though we like this asset class in the long run, investors exposed to it…
The extraordinary performance of AI companies has pushed US growth stocks to new highs. So far, the MSCI US Growth Index has returned almost 11% since the start of the year, outperforming global stocks by over 3%. No growth index…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the growth rate of China’s infrastructure investment will likely slow from a nominal 9% last year to about 6% this year. Funding constraints will limit…
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 in March, better than expectations of 48.4 and breaking above the 50 boom-bust line for the first time since September 2022. Notably the new orders component rebounded to 51.4, marking…
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service is watching households, the labor market and consumer credit for signs of a business cycle inflection and the all-clear signal to underweight equities. Equity bear markets…
The equity rally extended into March as hard landing outcome was priced out. It has broadened, as money flowed into less over-loved pockets of the market. Our models signal that margins are about to stabilize, and earnings growth…
Friday’s PCE report showed a resilient US economy. Real personal consumption increased by 0.4% m/m in February, beating expectations of 0.1% m/m and remaining above its pre-pandemic trend. Both services and goods…