Business Cycles
Fears of a hard landing are abating as growth has been surprising to the upside. New worries are emerging, such as the trajectory of disinflation, and the pace and timing of rate cuts. In this environment, it is important to build a resilient all-weather portfolio, which protects against a correction, rising rates, or stubborn inflation but also has exposure to the AI theme.
German industrial production growth accelerated from an upwardly revised 1.3% m/m to 2.1% m/m in February, registering the fastest pace in 13 months and largely beating expectations of a slowdown. A 7.9% m/m increase in the construction sector was the top…
The recent rise in market-based inflation expectations has caught the attention of market participants. Some investors have begun to worry that the Federal Reserve might be losing control of its inflation mandate by cutting rates sooner than it should. But…
Commodities are making headlines with the prices of crude oil, copper, and gold all making sizeable gains since mid-February. Multiple forces have been cited as drivers of the rally across these commodities. Increased geopolitical risks amid concern of a…
The 303-thousand increase in nonfarm payrolls in March came in well above consensus expectations of a moderation from 270 thousand to 214 thousand. Healthcare, the public sector and construction were the top contributors to employment growth. Moreover, the…
The past week brought a slew of positive US economic data, all suggesting that conditions remain robust and a recession is not imminent. The ISM Manufacturing PMI crossed into expansion for the first time since September 2022, the number of job openings…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service maintains a neutral view on the dollar for the next three months. The team continues to believe that the dollar is due for a long-term bear market, but momentum is in favor of the DXY in the near term. …
As a small open economy, Sweden’s economic performance is a good barometer of global growth developments. Swedish PMIs for March were overall positive. The Manufacturing PMI rose to the 50 boom-bust line following 19 consecutive months of contraction and…
Climbing US bond yields, alongside higher oil prices, might spoil the party for global risk assets. There are budding cracks in EM domestic bonds, and even though we like this asset class in the long run, investors exposed to it should reduce their positions for now.
The extraordinary performance of AI companies has pushed US growth stocks to new highs. So far, the MSCI US Growth Index has returned almost 11% since the start of the year, outperforming global stocks by over 3%. No growth index from the rest of the world…