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Business Cycles

China’s Infrastructure Investment Will Slow In 2024
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the growth rate of China’s infrastructure investment will likely slow from a nominal 9% last year to about 6% this year. Funding constraints will limit local government capability to invest in…
Daily Insights
ISM Shows Signs Of A Manufacturing Revival
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 in March, better than expectations of 48.4 and breaking above the 50 boom-bust line for the first time since September 2022. Notably the new orders component rebounded to 51.4, marking the second expansionary reading…
Daily Insights
Getting The US Consumer Right
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service is watching households, the labor market and consumer credit for signs of a business cycle inflection and the all-clear signal to underweight equities. Equity bear markets and recessions tend to…
Daily Insights
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Style Chart Pack: Reviewing Our Models

The equity rally extended into March as hard landing outcome was priced out. It has broadened, as money flowed into less over-loved pockets of the market. Our models signal that margins are about to stabilize, and earnings growth will accelerate as the year progresses. However, companies are raising prices again and the no-landing outcome and fewer than three rate cuts this year are increasingly likely.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Strong PCE Report Increases Risk Of Second Wave
Friday’s PCE report showed a resilient US economy. Real personal consumption increased by 0.4% m/m in February, beating expectations of 0.1% m/m and remaining above its pre-pandemic trend. Both services and goods contributed positively. Real personal…
Daily Insights
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: On A Tightrope

The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Stronger-Than-Expected US Economic Momentum in Q4
The US economy expanded at a faster pace than previously believed in 2023Q4. GDP grew at an annualized 3.4% q/q rate, thus annulling the second estimate’s downward revision. Notably, consumption growth was revised even higher to 3.3% q/q, from 3.0% q/q and…
Daily Insights
A State-Level Look At US Delinquency Rates And Employment Conditions
At 3.9% in February, the unemployment rate remains quite low in the US, corroborating the signal from GDP that current economic conditions are fine. Similarly, the Sahm Rule – which currently stands at 0.3 pp – has somewhat stabilized in recent months and has…
Daily Insights
Will Commodities Continue To Rally?
The recent rally in commodity markets is drawing the attention of the investment community and financial media. It’s not just cocoa – which has experienced a staggering 118.4% year to date increase that has further pushed up its price gains to 342% since…
Daily Insights
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Questions From Europe, Canada, California

Investors around Europe and North America are concerned that the stock market is increasingly overbought and vulnerable to exogenous risks. We agree and have good reasons to fear that festering geopolitical risks and the US election season will deal negative surprises.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken

Related Topics

Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics