Business Cycles
S&P 500: A Look Beneath The Surface Of Fresh Record Highs
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According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, ‘bad unemployment’ is on the rise in the US, despite resilient growth. There are two ways that you can become unemployed. Either by losing your job. Or by entering the labour force to look for a job. The…
US headline CPI inflation accelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m in February, in line with expectations. A rise in gasoline prices and shelter inflation accounted for 60% of this increase. Meanwhile, the annual rate of change in the headline index unexpectedly…
Chinese stocks are experiencing their longest rally since the country’s exit from Covid restrictions over a year ago. The MSCI Onshore and Investable indices (in USD terms) have gained 15.8% and 9.1% respectively since February 5th, with the former…
Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 have been trending lower, the latest 2.5% print (which is down from 3.4% a month ago) still suggests that economic conditions are resilient in the US. Yet small business owners are less optimistic. The results…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a very substantial PSL financing scheme for housing, a large LG and LGFV debt swap, and considerable fiscal transfers to households—or a combination thereof— might lead them to upgrade their…
Results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed an uptick in medium- and long-term inflation expectations in February. Specifically, the three-year ahead measure rebounded from a record low of 2.4% to 2.7% and the five-year ahead gauge…
The US employment situation report sent a mixed signal on Friday. While total nonfarm payrolls rose by 275 thousand jobs in February, exceeding the 200 thousand expected, the previous two months’ numbers were revised lower by 167 thousand jobs (see Indicator…
For the past year, relatively large downward revisions have been key features of the monthly US nonfarm payrolls reports. Friday’s release was no exception. Although it showed the magnitude of job gains beat expectations in February, estimates for December…
Japanese equities and government bonds sold off on Monday and the yen strengthened following the release of the revised Q4 GDP report showing the economy expanded by an annualized 0.4% q/q in Q4 2023 versus earlier estimates of a 0.4% contraction. A…